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兩隻逆流而上的防守高息股

香港股市近期表現平靜,不過,由年初至今差不多六個月,恒生指數其實下跌了超過13%,各類型的股份當中,以香港本土的股票跌得最傷,幸好仍然有例外,可以繼續發揮防守的本質。

所講的兩隻本地防守性股份:港燈(2638)和香港電訊(6823),股價逆市上升,派息亦頗為吸引。

市場上有一些股份,之能夠擔演防守性的本色,主要因為業務穩定之餘,派息吸引,所以在市況轉壞或市場不明朗的時候,就會成為資金避難所; 不過過去一年,受到香港大型社會運動,以及武漢肺炎疫情的影響,不少的防守性股份,表現到大為失色,股價見紅。

港燈表現跑贏中電、煤氣

港燈和香港電訊今年分別升了近5% 和3.3%(圖 1),同期恒生指數下跌約一成三。比較中電(0002)和煤氣公司(0003),錄得的7%和21%的跌幅,這兩間公司的表現已經相當不俗。

(圖 1)港燈和香港電訊今年以來(截至29/6/2020)表現

(圖 2)熱門收息股表現

話說回來,港燈和香港電訊兩隻股票有什麼共通的地方?兩間都是商業信托的上市模式,這類公司的特色就是淨賺多少錢就派多少錢。所以股息一般比較吸引,也成為股價相對較為穩定的原因之一。

港燈

港燈的業務相信都不用太多的介紹,主要是香港的港島區電力供應商。港燈和中電跟政府簽訂的新利潤協議已經生效,享有的特許利潤回報由9.99%下降至8%,減幅約20%,也是這個原因,港燈過去一年的收入減少(圖 3) ,派發的股息(圖 4) 也相應下跌了20%。派息由以往6%下調到4%,不過,在市況低迷之下,也有一定的吸引力,加上用電是民生的必需品,經濟差也要用電,公司收入相對較穩定。

(圖 3) 港燈收入情況

(圖4) 港燈的派息

其他兩隻公用股中電和煤氣公司表現較不濟,有本身問題,例如中電的澳洲業務收入減少,而煤氣因為經濟下滑,餐飲業煤氣銷量下降影響收入,加上股民熱愛的十送一紅股,這個派息方式改變了,變成二十送一,為超過十年來首次,也影響股民的支持度。

高息的香港電訊

香港電訊除了提供本地電話服務,亦都有經營流動通訊業務,還有國際電訊、流動通訊設備的銷售等等。新增業務也不少,去年成功投得5G頻譜,今年展開相關的通訊業務,還有電子錢包、以及虛擬銀行的業務。

截至去年12月底止的年度,雖然曾經受到大型社會運動影響,本地的流動通訊產品銷售大幅下跌,但仍然無損利潤收益(圖 5) ,派息也保持增長(圖 6) ,在股市轉差的情況下,依然能夠逆市上升。公司派發的股息達6%,對股民來說相當吸引。

(圖 5) 電訊收入情況

(圖6) 電訊派息

大家要留意的是,去年的業績並未反映肺炎疫情對香港電訊的影響,要待公司公布截止今年六月半年業績才知。

早前《彭博》引述消息報道,香港電訊考慮出售旗下電盈環球(PCCW Global)。消息令到公司股價一度大升,市場憧憬出售資產之後可以派發特別股息,不過能否成事,也是未知數。

前景

香港經濟面臨不少的不明朗因素,例如國安法、中美的磨擦,以及因為肺炎疫情打擊的經濟,都有機會令到股市表現充斥着很多負面影響,雖然港燈及香港電訊這類防守性股份,仍可以起著避風塘作用,不過如果整體環境越變越差的話,基金繼續在香港撤走,穩健的股票少不免也會受到牽連。

不過,全球息率向下,各地中央銀行不斷無限量放水救經濟,長線來說,高息股會有捧場客。加上香港電訊又有不少新增業務,似乎又多一個吸引的地方。

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