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再談MPF:我的投資策略

管理MPF可以有好多種方法,你可以一直唔理,由其自生自滅,到退休或者會有點後悔。對於筆者來說,由於強積金是強迫金,局住俾人投資,所以都覺得有點無耐,管理上所花的時間不多,投資的策略有少少跟股票近似。

香港打工仔要管理自己的強積金,其實是比較困難,一來網上 “幫得手”的工具極少,下下要自己做功課; 二來,基金公司的資訊提供並不友善,搵資料唔太方便,難比較又難搵得齊。至於財經網站的資訊更加差,用投資股票的角度分析強積金表現,其實MPF一個月賺多、賺少並不重要,因為這項投資講緊的是十年、廿年的投資期。

話說回來,我個人投資屬於進取型,一直都全數放在股票身上。保證及保本的不在考慮之列,因為長年累月,大部份都做得唔好,又收管理費。另方面,一些叫 “精選基金”,即是基金中的基金(基金投資不同的基金),又不會在考慮之列,因為手續費是比完一重又一重,所以會較高。

“核心”與 “非核心” 投資法

在組織基金組合時,我會分 “核心”與 “非核心”,”核心” 是指一些長線看好,同時做得好的; 而個別基金預期會偶然一、兩年反彈的,就視作非核心(中短線投資)。

我所投資的MPF公司,長線做得好主要是《增長型基金》及《綠色退休基金》,這都是全球基金,我之所以重點投資在這些基金,因為觀察到它們長期都做得好,部份可能跟基金經理質素有關,所以我會把比重放多些在這些基金身上,平時調整時也較少郁動。

非核心型會因應市場投資環境調動一下。因為這些基金可能升一、兩年之後,就打回原型,好似日本、香港與中國基金一樣。

那些地區基金長線看好與不看好?

如果用一個長線投資計,美股的表現會比中港基金,甚至日本好,因為美股市場是自由市場,有靈活的自我修復機制,經濟差、股市跌,跌到冇朋友,但調整過後、重新振作會有反彈,並且收復失地、再創新高。但中港股市,因為受到政策影響,自我調整的機制不靈活; 與此同時中國已經過了經濟高峰期,經濟結構要轉型靠內需,加上人口結構問題,中國人口已經步入一個高齡期,人口紅利漸消失(有機會可再慢慢分析),經濟增長動力不及以前有爆炸力,日本也是另一例,變了成熟穩重的中、老年人,跑起路來轉兩個圈還可以,但長一點路已經無力。所以投資美股可以作長線,中港日股市只是周期性,中短線作的調動。

簡單來說,個人組合約有六隻基金,核心佔50-60%,不大調整。幾隻非核心基金佔40-50%,會因應個人對市場看法調整,即使調整也是略為加加減減,這是多年來的懶人投資方法。

筆者早期都製作了一個MPF的免費網上工具的專頁,裡面有些實用的連結,也不妨去研究一下。

👉🏻 MPF好幫手

(12/4/2021)

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