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如何利用港股/美股組織懶人組合?

投資想賺錢,有一個守則好重要,輸咗就要認,同時要接受自己的不足,不要硬頸。不肯認輸就是蝕錢的致命傷。

懶人投資又有一個守則:唔使事事親力親為,善用投資工具,例如懂得幾時用股票、基金或ETF,效果可能好過又出又入,沒有目標的投資。

這是多年來投資心得,也因如此,所以我的組合不時都有股票、ETF和基金。

筆者有相當一段時間,投資相當主動,經常因應市場變化調整組合,但遇上幾次投資越主動、成績越令人沮喪的時候,最後發現以當時形勢,買入一隻大包圍的ETF比較恰當,成績唔同晒。

換言之,懶人投資得出來的成績,未必差過自己主動型的投資,重點是如何利用合適的投資工具。

香港的懶人投資策略難照抄美國的一套

多年來,筆者希望可以分享多一些懶人投資方式,所以一直觀察不同美股的懶人組合,但美國採用的一套,香港未必用得著,因為美國主要的投資工具以美股為主,香港的投資氣氛和可選擇的工具不同,很難搬了過來跟讀者分享。例如很多美國人相信,股市大升之後會下跌,調整過後又會反彈,所以長線投資會賺錢。這是美國經濟的彈性和自我修復能力強,放在港股是不行的。

金融海嘯時,倘若你在恒指三萬點以上的高位買入盈富基金(2800),要等超過十年才返家鄉。美股標普指數在金融海嘯時暴跌,不用5年時間收復失地,再創新高。這是一個例子。

港股懶人組合

如果大家想組織一個懶人組合,或有不同方法,只想投資港股,咁揀股不㨂市,找幾隻有前景的大藍籌,勝算機會比長期持有ETF好。邊幾隻?往績唔錯的有友邦(1299)、港交所(0388)等(或者去我定期檢討的12隻高息增長股名單研究一下😌)。

懶人投資港股,打算長線用月供的話,選盈富或科技指數ETF還是可以的,再加一些個別穩健型股票。

用美股組織懶人組合

至於有接觸或投資美股的,ETF會是不錯的核心選擇,例如追蹤標普指數ETF的SPY,之外再加一、兩隻增長型的ETF,例如小型企業指數ETF,或新興市場ETF,便可以了,或者再加一些債券/環球股市ETF,增加投資組合的穩定性。這個做法,是很多著名懶人組合的投資策略,長線都唔難找到每年5、6%的回報。

值得一提,懶人投資雖然叫做懶人方法,唔代表買了股票一勞永逸,也要定期睇睇,檢討一下。

(27/4/2021)

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