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如何參與「中國經濟復常」概念投資?

近日美股的市場焦點有幾個,包括本星期聯儲局加息的決定,會否代表息口升勢快告一段落。另一個焦點是科技大企業如蘋果(AAPL)、Amazon(AMZN)等公布業績結果。仲有一個大議題是「中國復常」概念投資法。

事實上,中國重啟經濟這個概念早在去年底已經靜悄悄地展開了,銅價升了、新興市場相關股份升了,香港的股市都熱烘烘。問題是這一輪的投資可以持續多久。

早輪靜悄悄地展開了吸納行動是春江鴨,這輪是追落後,特別是基金經理,被早一兩年內地政策意想不到的發展嚇得目瞪口呆,不少都淡出了中資相關的投資,今次見到中國放棄了嚴厲的清零防疫政策,180度急轉彎,起初基金經理都唔想跟車太貼,只用靜觀其變的態度。

不過,今年以來,這個China Play越演越烈,各大國際財經媒體又不約而同大玩這個主題,如《Barrons’》 “China’s Big Comeback Is Just Getting Started. How to Play It.” , 《金融時報》”What China’s reopening means for markets”,教埋大家點玩這個主題。

這一刻才加入去追買會否遲咗啲?視乎中國的”Big Comeback”是否認真。

這輪升勢或許因為基金經理要再重組投資組合,入番啲貨,否則年結的時候難以交待,而衍生工具空倉的話,都要平下倉,令市場沽壓減少。過了這一輪真的要睇中國的經濟復常發展得順唔順利,以及政策的扶持夠唔夠力,如大放水喉,或多一些刺激經濟的措施,更重要的是唔再去「搞」啲企業,去年「國進民退」的措施,政治干預太多,都令好多民企動力消失。

話說回來,要參與呢輪的China Play 可以點玩法?可以有兩個方向,1)直接透過港股,2)透過美股的話,可以睇下邊類大型企業受惠中國經濟復常。

今年以來,港股的中資科網股,如阿里巴巴(9988)、網易(1211)都升超過兩成,滙豐(0005)升了19%,遠遠跑贏美國的大型國際銀行。

ETF方面,大部份的大型基金都升了超過一成以上,盈富基金(2800)升11.6%,安碩A50(2823)中國基金升了12%,南方恒生科技基金(3033)升了11%。

至於美股方面,商品類股份,如銅、鐵礦企業都受惠,中國始終都是14億人口國家,需求龐大。還有新興市場,新興市場的經濟其實都好依賴中國,如巴西出口的礦材、肉類等,亞洲地區的出口亦會受惠。當然還有投資中國的ETF。

結語

近十多年來,投資中國一向不易賺錢,因為很難用基本的分析去評估股份的價值。想賺錢的話便要懂得看政策的風向,同時宜短不宜長。如果政策方向及時機掌握不到,好易由賺變蝕。近期這股「中國熱」可以持續多久,相信沒有人估得到。基金經理要追表現,我們小股民沒有這個包袱,投資時大家都要審慎一點。

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