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如何跟李嘉誠賺錢?

投資李嘉誠旗下的公司,想跟李嘉誠賺錢,要有兩個心理準備:1)要有很大的耐性;2)李嘉誠出招時,往往是佢贏大份,你賺小份,但總算是雙贏。

今次用一個較為簡單的方式,從另一個角度拆解最近這次大型的交易。

先俾少少資料背景大家:

長實集團(01113)計劃向李嘉誠基金會收購4個項目,分別是位於英國及荷蘭的基建業務,作價170億元,收購代價不是現金,而是長實的股份。

為了支付收購,長實會印發新股給李嘉誠基金會。公司同時又會向其他小股東提出收購,即是回購股份,同樣是作價是每股51元,較長實過去10個交易日平均收市價高出10%。回購的目的是唔想因為發行新股而攤薄股東的權益。交易令到李嘉誠家族的持股量由35.99%增至最多45.02%。

消息一出,長實股價自然升,因為長實發行的新股,股價比市場高。

這是雙贏,不過是大股東贏大份,小股東贏小份。這是一貫李嘉誠施展財技的結果。小股東贏小分因為長實發新股,刺激股份升。

大股東贏大份因為:
1) 賣出一些套現比較麻煩的固定資產,買入流動性高的長實股票。
2)換入來的資產(長實股票),其實是超低價。看看長實的資產值,每股值96.02元,比51元的收購價,打了個53折。也可能是這個原因,大股東把資產賣給長實,而不是長建,因為長建股價跟資產價的差距不及長實大。

這個交易背後,還有甚麼部署呢?

市場人士估計這項交易是為長實私有化鋪路,我的看法就是不一定。 長實集團背後有很多軍師,所以作出的重組計劃會是比較複雜,務求又是大股東贏大份,小股東賺少少。

除了私有化長實,其實還有其他的方法,例如(純粹推測)長實可以用換股方法,私有化沒有太大作為的電能,或者把剛買回來的四項資產,高價賣比電能或長建。透過一買一賣,又可以重估兩間公司的價值,股價又可以大漲,這是以前做過的技倆。

李嘉誠的重組或交易,一向都是精心設計,同時是長線的,小股東想估佢做啲乜,從中賺錢,要好有耐性,平時冇事冇幹,李氏集團的股份是一群悶股,股價唔太刺激,派息都慢慢增長,好多時悶走了一批投機的人,才會有好消息出🤫。所以投資的話,要有心理準備。

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