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[投資感言]有資產沒有資產的分別

日前看到了篇關於退休投資的調查,受訪的人有55%受疫情影響,收入減少了,因而大部份人要食老本維持生計,換言之,大部份人要把退休的資金拿出來應急。這再令我想起有資產跟與沒有資產(haves and have-not)的分別。

一直覺得擁有資產和沒有擁有資產的人,確實有很大的分別,特別在香港,政府所提供的保障極為有限,如果身無長物,要部署退休,其實並不容易。單靠儲錢其實很難儲足夠的資金,作為餘下半生的使用,錢是會縮水的,因為有通脹。所以筆者一向鼓勵大家投資,而股票是相對較為容易入門的方法。

疫情打擊民生、經濟,關於財富方面,可以看到兩個現象:

1)有資產和沒有資產的分別
沒有資產,只靠工作賺錢,其實即使沒有疫情,也越來越困難,因為新經濟的冒起,對傳統經濟造成衝擊,以往的工作很容易被取代,即使沒有被取代,重要性也減低,簡單來說,你的工作變得越來越不重要, 即使幸運地保住飯碗,人工很難會有明顯的升幅。

筆者記得多年前在電視台工作, 新入職記者人工萬多元,沒料到多年以來, 人工不但沒有增加,反而不升反跌。話儲錢談何容易,仲要一邊儲錢,啲錢一邊貶值。

當其時還有一個印象深刻的體會, 電視台有一個拍攝出色的攝影師,經常靜悄悄地去外間拍電影。 為了多賺一些外快,同時也醉心於拍攝,他將大部份的積蓄百多萬元,買入了一部優質攝影機。誰知幾年下來,香港電影業不斷式微,接的祕撈越來越少。而手上的攝影機變得舊了,賣出去也不值錢。有人說如果他當年用過百萬作買樓首期,升值是數以倍計。

當然,那一份兼職可以給他一種滿足感,難以用金錢計算。往後的生活,他仍然靠電視台攝影師的工作維生,不過,另一個問題是電視台無論是劇集或新聞部,已經越來越似一間工廠,每個人的地位已經大不如前。

2) 敢於接受轉變與不敢冒險
2020年疫情肆虐期間,股市仍然堅挺,但並不是全數都賺錢,明顯地這是舊經濟和新經濟的分別,如果手上大部份是舊經濟股如傳統收息的銀行股、地產股,可能不能倖免賺不到錢,甚至仲要蝕錢。

經濟正在轉型,這是一個不能逆轉的大趨勢,傳統舊經濟佔據的地位逐漸被新經濟取代,這不是因為疫情出現才發生, 只是疫情催化了這個發展。投資的時候我們亦都要放開一點,在你的投資組合接受新經濟公司。 這當然不是鼓勵大家去投資一些大起大落的科技股,至少擁有新經濟特質的成長企業。

綜合來說,疫情的影響,進一步催化貧富兩方的距離,這基於兩個原因,一就是有資產和沒有資產分別,就是二就是對投資新舊經濟的理解和執着。

科技的發展很快,令到經濟的轉變也很快,同時也會超出我們本身的知識和理解的領域範圍,大家可以好似股神巴菲特一樣執着,但作為小小投資者,也要適應調整一下,在投資組合中,撥出少少資金體會一下迎接新經濟的來臨,而即使科技股因為升得大多回調,但長線這是一個大趨勢。投資如果不幸有損失,只不過少少的資金,換來的就是你對市場的認識和體驗,讓自己適當新世界。

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