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投資港股輸多贏少 點為未來十年部署?

今天的恒生指數,早已跌穿咗20,000點,有冇想過,10年前的今天,指數都在差不多水平上落。十年人事幾番新,但香港股市就十年如一日,沒有多大變化,咁樣投資好容易得個吉🍊。

當年的增長股 今日原地踏步

這十年間,大市有上有落,但幅度唔算大(比起美股),最後又回到起步點,小股民在這十年間,投資港股想賺錢,的確唔容易。例如十年前,滙豐(0005)股價在60多元水平,今天股價已跌穿咗50元水平,中移動(0941)十年前股價在70元以上,今天仍在50元水平 “掙扎”。建設銀行(0939)在2012年時,股價還在5元樓上,今天則5元都未到。

多隻當年熱門的股票,風頭一時無兩,曾經風光過,帶領港股向前衝,但時移世易,今天動力不足,似走不動的大笨象們。倘若恒生指數不是不停的換血,換入了一批早前大升的科技股,今天的恒生指數表現更加差。

何解港股咁不濟?

點解當年熱門的大藍籌咁不濟?關鍵是主要收入動力的中國市場,經濟增長放緩,以前中國每年的經濟增長達到雙位數字,即是10%以上,今時今日中國經濟的增長比美國和歐洲還要慢,只得一個 “低”單位數字增幅,依靠內地市場的企業,特別是傳統企業,就更加難爭取驕人的成就。

以前中國的增長動力由三頭馬車帶動:固定資產投資(如起屋起橋)、出口和內部消費。不過中國經濟富起來之後,要轉型提升經濟,唔想再依靠平價品的出口,高增值的出口又未見有大成效。而早年地方政府大搞基建,債務都未清,加上近十年冒起的民營企業,都因為 “國進民退”,主力由國企領軍,私營企業好多已經沒有當年的活力。在種種轉變下,經濟前景都有很多不明朗因素。

如何為未來十年投資作好部署

香港本土企業表現一樣乏善可陳,銀行唔得、地產又唔惦,本土企業難有突出表現。在這樣的形勢下,未來的十年,港股可以升得幾多?

如果閣下不甘於現時港股的回報,想有更多的收穫,可能要研究下新的投資策略:

1. 炒股不炒市

不要期待大市升,閣下的股票可以水漲船高。要找一些高增長的股票,多做功課、多冒一些風險去投資,中短線投資的安全系數比較高,因為內地的政策真的好難觸摸,長線投資風險唔細。

2. 放眼世界

不要太本土,不要把自己的投資局限在香港或內地公司。大家考慮衝出香港,不太了解美股市場,也可以從一些大包圍政策開始,即是用ETF投資有前景的海外市場。美國近年調整咗唔少,不過,近十年間,標普指數仍有數以倍數的升幅。

3. 掌握潮流的改變

緊貼潮流的發展,找一個有前景或長青的領域去作長線投資。例如綠色、新能源、醫療健康,或者好似Facebook(Meta)講的元宇宙等等。

總括來說,香港股市的表現十年如一日,上上落落都沒有寸進,無論穩健派或進取的投資,都要採取主動,為未來十年做好部署,否則十年後又可能得個吉。這個部署不限於個人投資,閣下的強積金都一樣。

(9/9/2022)

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