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[獨家]投資黃金比盈富基金更難賺錢

黃金價格再創新高,現貨金每盎司突破1,940美元,今年初以來,金價上升了接近28%,比起港股的表現更為突出,不過,從投資黃金賺到錢的人,相信比投資港股為少,簡單來說買黃金比投資股票更難賺錢。

黃金十年

黃金價格對上一次的歷史高位,已經是2011年的事,歐債危機,加上中東地緣局勢緊張,在市場恐慌之下,黃金成為資金的避難所,價格在2011年9月升到1921.15美元當時的歷史新高,其後足足要等差不多九年,才有突破。

不過,在過去10年(2010年初至2019年底),黃金和香港股市的表現,都不算突出, 10年之間,升升跌跌。以追縱金價的SPDR金(2840) 和 追縱港股的盈富基金(2800)為例,十年間回報分別31%和37%,兩者中。盈富基金還好一些,每年有大約2%至3%的股息收入,投資黃金ETF股息收入是零👌🏻。

圖:盈富基金(2800)及SPDR金(2840) 十年股價走勢(2/1/2010至31/12/2019)。

為何小散戶投資黃金會比股票難賺錢?

投資股票就等於投資一間公司,只要公司有錢賺,所處身的行業有前景,長線都可以帶來增值,期間有股息收入帶來現金流,所以長期持有較易接受。

黃金表現比較為波動、較情緒化,金價做好的時候,往往就是經濟出現問題、政治局勢緊張,投資者恐懼的期間。急升一輪,會隨市場消化壞消息而回軟。買黃金或相關工具,時間掌握是十分重要的,普通的小散戶,如果不是全情投入,未必容易駕馭得到。加上買黃金並沒有息收,沒有創造被動收入,長期持有又等不到金價回升,隨時出現虧損。

黃金的黃金時段

投資黃金想賺錢,最重要就是掌握時機,什麼時候投資黃金最好?這就要從金價大升的因素說起:

1. 股市動盪
受經濟不景及地緣政局緊張等的因素刺激,股市出現恐慌,金價成為避險天堂。

2. 美元貶值
美元貶值,投資者會換走美金,轉移投資黃金保值。所以美國聯邦儲備局大開水喉及減息,美元的走勢向下,金價好多時轉強。

3. 通脹升溫
通脹升不完的時候,手上的錢不斷貶值,持有黃金可以抗通脹。

簡單來說,當大家預期股市受經濟或政局影響,有機會出現重大調整,又或者通脹升溫等情況即將來臨,可以先行做好部署,等待黃金的黃金時間來臨。

持有黃金,可以作為閣下分散投資的一部份,當股市出現動盪,便可以起著定海神針的作用。

如何投資黃金最好?

投資黃金有很多方法,不一定要買實金(金條或金幣),擁有實金需要有安全的地方安置,頗為不便,我們可以透過股票市場來投資,買黃金ETF,或者選擇金礦股。

美股上市的黃金ETF,規模較大有SPDR Gold (GLD),金礦股ETF有VanEck Vectors Gold Miners(GDX)。

港股方面,黃金ETF有SPDR金(2840) 及價值黃金ETF(3081),兩者最大分別是價值黃金ETF的實金庫存在香港。

香港上市金礦股方面,則有多隻,包括:

  • 招金(01818)
  • 紫金(02899)
  • 山東黃金(01787)
  • 中國黃金國際(02099)

一眾金礦股中,以招金和紫金較熱門,規模較大。

結語

我們的長輩喜歡用黃金來保值,而黃金確實有它的投資價值,不過,金價的波動比起股市更加大,大升之後隨時可以出現調整,往後一段時間有波幅,未必會有升幅,正如過去,足足等上差不多九年才返回家鄉。所以投資黃金,時間的掌握十分重要。若採用一個長線的投資策略,便要有極大的耐性,因為唔可以好像一些大藍籌股一樣,可以做到賺息蝕價。

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