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日圓大跌又是執平貨時候?

日圓滙價在星期一跌至七年低位,唔少因為疫情關係冇 “回鄉”好耐的香港人,會否心動入定啲日圓,等日後去日本旅行呢?筆者或者都是其中一員,呢個時候或者分段入定都無妨😃。

日本的通脹一直低迷,早年去日本食一碗拉麵,同十多廿年後再去食,價錢差不多,分別在於滙水的高低。如果在低位買日圓,錢就更好用,這就是婆仔數😂。
再想一層,日圓滙價跌,一般有利股市表現,因為日本大型企業都是以出口為主,日圓匯價大貶價,有利於日本產品海外銷售,對企業收入成正面影響,刺激日本股市上升。所以這個時候又想到美股上市兩大日股ETF。

何解日圓跌咁多?

日圓下跌因為多個主要國家受通脹升溫影響而收緊貨幣政策,但日本反其道而行繼續放水,採取經濟刺激政策,單單這個月以來,兌美元的滙價跌了超過7%,這樣怎不令喜歡到日本旅行的fans大為心動?不過日圓跌得多,隨時引發日央行出手干預,日滙下跌幾多、幾耐難以估計。

日股平上加平

美股上市熱門追蹤日本股市的大型ETF包括:iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ),以及WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF(DXJ)。兩隻ETF最大分別是DXJ有外匯兌沖。
日本股市表現多年以來都跑輸全球,日圓匯價下跌,令到日本股市更具吸引力,以兩隻美股上市日本ETF來說,近期表現其實都唔差,不過,受日圓滙價跌影響,沒有對沖的EWJ,資產價值的升幅被滙價跌所抵銷,令一隻做滙價對沖的DXJ,表現就相當突出。不過值得一提,DXJ由於有滙價影響,波動一般比EWJ大。

圖:EWJ及DXJ基本資料(28/3/2022)

圖:EWJ及DXJ股價表現(28/3/2022)

隨着各地包括日本都漸採取與病毒共存的政策,經濟活動慢慢恢復過來,日股在日圓走低的發展上,資產價格平上加平,開始吸引一些資金來投資。不過,日本經濟始終有其結構上的問題,股市往往反彈一輪,再沒有新動力,表現好易無以為繼,所以筆者以往的投資都是採取短線的態度,即係話宜短不易長。

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