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港版國安法下陰霾密佈 係時候準備投資新路向

全國人大會議審議港版國安法草案,消息一出港股即時大插水,這個震撼股市的情景,會唔會係提醒我哋,投資要搵新出路?

港版國安法法的消息一出,觸發股票市場恐慌性拋售,股市到第二個交易開始回穩,情況看似穩定過來,看清楚一點,重災區本地的銀行及地產股繼續受壓,在一連兩個交易日跌得頗傷。

另一方面,北水來香港買貨,亦是連續兩天出現淨流入,即是來自內地的資金買貨多於撤資,而吸納的主要是一些熱門的中資股。內地人買中資股,自然不過的事。這是他們比較熟悉的企業。換言之,因為港版國安法的消息引發的港股急跌,受損的不少都是本地股民及外資基金。

事實上,受到去年下半年社會運動影響,加上今年武漢肺炎肆虐,香港的經濟早已元氣大損。港版國安法推出,令到跟香港經濟息息相關的企業,如本地銀行股、地產股、收租股、零售飲食企業等,再遇多一重打擊。

中資股佔了港股大半邊天

值得一提的就是,今時今日香港的股市反映的主要是內地的經濟,因為超過六成股票的買賣,以中資企業為主。香港經濟差,受影響主要是本地企業,如地產、收租股,以及銀行股。情況就好像去年下半年,香港出現大型的社會運動,但股市好像進入了一個平衡的時空,股市急跌過後很快反彈,全年仍能錄得上升格局。

筆者不是專家,很難去評估國安法具體的深遠影響,但可以看到一個持續的大趨勢,即使外國資金(基金)撤出香港,內地的資金,無論是買股票,或買香港的企業,仍會繼續來。中資,包括已在美國上市,或者原本計劃去美國上市的中資概念股,鑑於中美角力令風險增加,對香港股票市場興趣有增無減。在此消彼長下,香港股票市場染紅的程度越來越深。

真的要避開本地的股票 ?

投資大行例如高盛,因應港版國安法的推行,建議投資者避開本地的股份,包括地產、銀行、零售等等。預計這類的股票,表現也繼續乏善足陳。

港版國安法推展,可以預料,香港社會會出現強烈的反彈,在元氣未完全恢復的本地經濟,或者會繼續受到影響。所以即使沒有大行報告,我們都可以預料到本地的企業,都不能寄予厚望。

不過,問題就是作為香港人,放棄要自己最熟悉的本土企業,轉移投資一些業務我們並不熟悉啲中資公司, 無論在分析、研究、追踪方面,都比國內的投資者處於下風。加上投資的資訊也比大陸較為遜色,這無疑減低投資成效及增加投資的風險。

如果我們放棄了本土的企業,轉移投資一些大家未必太認識的股份,即使股票市場在香港,仍然沒有優勢可言,哪何不把自己投資的眼光放大一點,除了香港股票市場的買賣,嘗試把美股加入自己的投資之內?

投資美股的好處,除了有我們熟悉的大型國際企業,例如Facebook、蘋果、Amazon等等,這個市場透明度比較高、資訊流通非常發達,投資分析其實非常方便。

結語

簡單地做一個總結,香港股市可以繼續投資,但不是唯一的投資選擇。本土的企業,論公司規模、買賣活躍程度都比中資股比下去,加上前景不明朗,投資選擇和回報可能打了折扣。不過,投資中資股,風險也會比較大,市場受到政治因素影響頗大,要多花時間,了解內地的遊戲規則。這樣何不不去幫自己開拓多一個投資新天地。

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