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港股大跌 熱錢散走😱

香港股市在財政預算案公布當日,暴跌900幾點,跌幅接近3%,接近九個月以來最大的跌幅,與此同時,市場熱錢出現流走情況。

原本都不打算寫一些港股即市評論,不過今天在美股文章,跟大家討論過通脹升溫引發息率上升憂慮的話題,所以又忍唔住在港股做一個簡單的討論。

正如筆者經常都提到,市場氣氛良好,主要因為資金泛濫、熱錢過多,這些資金是快出快入的,唔會同你做人世,一有風吹草動,就會急急止賺離場。

經濟因為疫程緩和有望好轉,帶出了另一個話題,就是經濟好,通脹可能上升,所以見到債券價格下跌,推高息率,引發市場進一步的憂慮。

美股方面,人家美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾出來安撫市場,不會急急出手 “抗通脹”,令到昨日美股出現一場虛驚。香港方面,出了一個財政預算案,市場的反應就是讓資金有藉口離場。一來內容看不到預算案對香港的經濟有甚麼刺激作用,二來還要加印花稅,令到炒股的成本增加,所以又有一個藉口撤走資金。

圖:藍籌股24/2/2021股價表現

睇睇下跌900幾點的香港股市,跌幅達到2.99%,成交金額多達3,530億元,皆因不少人要錢唔要貨。跌幅最大的,就是近期升得比較多、剛公布業績的港交所(0388),跌了8.8% ,印花稅由0.1%上調至0.13%,8月開始實施,這自然不利股票買賣,所以港交所受壓成為跌幅最大的股份。科技股連日都調整緊,不過科技股調整,已經係全球現象。近年少見受到追捧的高息股,特別是公用股,就成為資金的避難所。

結語

總結一句,市場以熱錢為主導,資金快出快入,股市比較波動也是常能,經濟未有太大好轉,通脹真的會重燃?相信要一段日子印證,但股市升得多,風險意識上升是現實,投資時審慎啲會較好,想趁低吸納,也不要太急入市,把動放慢少少或者係更佳策略。

註:為讓大家多些參考,筆者把早段時間上載的美股文章《通脹升溫 炒股要退潮?》開放與所有Patreon的會員,有興趣可以睇睇。

(24/2/2021)

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