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港股變 ‘彈散’ 留意美股轉調

香港唔少人鍾意食 “蛋散”,入口鬆脆,一咬就散。放諸在人身上,就唔夠硬淨,而放在股市,就係一食糊就散(水),拿來形容近日的港股也不為過,或者是 “彈散”,彈完就散晒。

港股星期二來一個似樣少少的大反彈,大升618點,之後無以為繼,再度腳軟,相信其中原因是等出貨的人多,一見到反彈爭相散貨離場。如果未來沒有實質的利好消息,港股可能都繼續一彈就散,唔散都打横行,所以投資港股要留意一下,低位撈貨,未來可能波幅大過升幅,要預期坐多一會。

至於美股方面,創新高已不是新聞,唔會有人日日講,大跌後好快彈返上嚟、再創新高。這就是在一個樂觀情緒股市投資,成績一般好過留守港股的原因。

強勢、弱勢股又執位

不過,美股反彈不一定代表閣下買了股票,早前跌咗可以重返家鄉,因為投資的調子其實不知不覺改變咗。

先跟大家重溫一下市況,方便大家投資時做好部署。

去年第一季開始,股市(無論香港或者美國)走弱,跌到去谷底,主要是受到疫情困擾,經濟大受打擊,傳統企業率先受累,只有少數行業,如科技公司受惠。美股在科技股帶動之下好快從低位回升,港股亦都在個別科技股的拉動下,慢慢反彈。這段期間買入科技股,好多都冇得輸。

今年年頭,投資主題改變了,傳統股份開始出現反彈,因為疫情的打擊和影響慢慢減退,疫苗注射日漸普及,大家憧憬經濟可以回復正軌,舊經濟或經濟敏感的股份表現轉強,科技股因為升得太多,走勢放慢。年頭買舊經濟股如工業、能源等股份,有唔錯的收成。

走入樽頸地帶

近幾個月又轉了勢,疫情消息時好時壞,經濟反彈去到樽頸地帶,需求一時間轉強,令到供應跟唔切,結果就是物價上升、有地方請不到工人、出口運輸應對不來,拉慢了復甦的步伐,大家對經濟復甦的樂觀情緒又降溫了,近期見到油價及油股顯著調整,就是其中例子。

另方面,經濟有所改善,話題轉到加息和聯儲局收水,這勢將影響股市的資金流向。新西蘭打算加息(話加又唔加住),而南韓亦更率先調高息口。 《金融時報》指出,投資大行如高盛和摩根士丹利,旗下的對沖基金客戶開始減低槓桿,即是減少借錢炒賣,這樣市場的動力或稍弱。

近三個月以來,原料及能源股回吐,科技股休息完轉好。一旦加息,受惠股如金融股仍然走強。未來大家投資時,留意一下這方面的轉向,再製訂投資策略。


圖:標普500指數各分類股份近期表現

對筆者個人來說,現階段美股會減少能源類股份投資,金融股唔會太擔心,科技股睇下有沒有跌得多的股份留意下。長線投資就不受影響。

(27/08/2021)

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