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監管風暴後 仲買唔買中概股?

中國監管風暴引發美國上市的中概股暴跌,近日中美在這方面角力升溫,美國政交會要求申請上市的中概股提高透明度,披露多啲資料,在連番負面消息下,或者美國股民真正領悟到投資中資股的政策風險。

如果大家有為意的話,筆者未曾介紹過美國上市的中概股,這並不是因為我對這些股份沒興趣,而是有多種原因令我有保留。

事實上,我對一些在美國上市的中概股是頗有興趣,曾經草擬緊幾篇關於一些具潛質的、有話題的中概股,其中例子是中國的電動車製造商蔚來(NIO)。當大家以為Tesla(TSLA)表現搶鏡的時候,其實蔚來近一年的走勢更加驚人,所以曾經打算做個比較,但最後寫了一半還是決定放棄了。


圖:Tsla、 蔚來一年股價走勢

對中概股有保留,其中原因也是來自香港投資中資股的經驗。 例如投資石藥(1093),這個經驗,之前曾跟大家分享過,個人花了幾年時間,慢慢去投資、分析、追蹤和加注,到取得一些成績,回報超過一倍時,公司仲晉升為藍籌股,可謂由細睇到佢大,但突然間政策話變就變,令到一隻股份一度由賺變蝕,可謂一盤冷水撥了過來,將多年來的努力打倒了,這不是很令人氣餒的事嗎?

管治水平影響信心

第二個問題就是中資股的透明度比較低,對於公司的管治有所保留,公司公布的業績可以信賴嗎?這是一個問題,所以當你花大量的時間、心力在研究一隻股份,用多個數據來分析,到頭來是建基於一些不知是否值得信賴的數字,又如何安心投資呢?

今次中概股受到監管風暴牽連,來得快、又來得凶狠,所以這次亦令到美國的股民深深體驗到,投資中概股其實要面對很大的風險,這個風險一直他們不大著意。

美股財經網站分析員分析一隻中概股時,跟在香港的 “專家分析”,感覺上有很大不同。美國人分析中概股太過理性,建基於公司的數字,又對中國市場有一個很大的憧憬,在美麗的圖畫之上寫報告。

香港方面,看到的推介和媒體的著眼點,不少都在政策、環境的風向。或者這都是實在投資策略。

話說回來,今次中概股所遇到的風暴,將會令到很多美國股民對中概股的投資興趣大減。很多網上留言,都感受到不少的怨氣,恐怕這一浪打到的不單只是股份的股價表現,而是美國一般股民的信心,要回復這個信心相信並不是短時間之內的事,大家投資中資股,倒不如回到香港的港交所,或者會比在美國投資中概股方便得多,但短期內最好都是別太勇猛。

(3/8/2021)

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