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睇好綠色經濟?銅價長線無得輸🤔

講開銅這類資源產品, 很多人聯想起舊經濟,其實只是講啱一半。銅在新經濟發展上其實是不可以缺少的原料。銅價最近創10年新高,並不限於舊經復甦的原因。今次跟大家講講銅的投資價值。

當大家講緊電動汽車的時候,有沒有留意這些產品,原材料當中,銅佔的成份並不少。 新經濟發展快, 鋪設電線、電纜又要銅。綠色經濟方面,風力、太陽能發電廠越起越多,而無論是應用太陽能或者風力發電,都要用到銅來傳送電力。另方面,舊經濟從谷底反彈,銅價也同時翻生。這些都是銅價唔聲唔聲創10年新高的原因,也是重新受注意的因素,有分析員更形容銅為新石油。

再用近年高速增長的電動車做例子, 有沒有想過電動汽車對銅的需求,比傳統汽車更加大。 一架傳統汽車,大約用上14至49磅銅,電動車用上的銅多達四倍以上,去到183 磅😱。電動車熱賣,銅的需求便大增。


圖:各類型車對銅的需求(圖片來源:Copper Development Association)

大家有興趣可以去到Copper Development Association,下載它們的Factsheets.

智利是銅生產主要國,而全世界生產銅的地方超過20個國家,頗為分散,另外銅亦都有一個好處,可以100%循環再用,也是這些原因令到供應較為穩定,不過當需求短期內急增,要鼓勵生產商提高產量都要有一個誘因,至少價錢要升到吸引水平,與此同時增加產量亦都需要時間。


圖:銅價十年表現 (資料來源:Macrotrends)

銅業開採商及相關ETF

如果想踏上順風車,投資時可以考慮銅業生產商或者ETF。正如投資黃金等金屬礦產一樣,想爭取高些回報,直接選一家銅業開採商,升值較快,但要有眼光,要認真研究開採商的礦產質素、產量及營運效率,這類公司風險和波動比ETF高。

近一年來,銅業開採商股價超過一倍,比不少科技股升得還要厲害,年初至今都升三成以上。


圖:銅業開採商基本資料 (截至7/5/2021)

Lundin Mining Corporation(LUNMF)為金屬採礦公司,在巴西、智利、葡萄牙、瑞典和美國從事礦產的勘探,開發和開採。

Freeport-McMoRan(FCX)在北美,南美和印尼從事礦產的開採。

Taseko Mines(TGB)總部在加拿大,從事收購,開發和經營礦產。

圖:銅ETF

ETF方面,銅價造好,兩隻ETF年初至今都升超過三成。CPER是追蹤銅價ETF,COPX投資在生產銅的相關行業 ETF。

值得一提,銅價是經濟敏感度相當高的資源類產品,不時大起大跌,除了基本的需求,更加重要的是要看一看中國的經濟情況,因為中國市場佔全球銅的需求的一半。中國經濟放慢,對銅的需求減少,也會令到銅價回落。

(10/5/2021)

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