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睇Disney+定買迪士尼股票?

迪士尼最近有兩個消息大家或者會比較關心,第一,迪士尼的串流服務Disney+,將於11月正式登陸香港🎉,香港的粉絲們不用VPN都可以睇到佢哋啲電影, 第二,迪士尼的季度業績做得唔錯,又係多得Disney+等串流服務的強勁表現。

因為係業績期,有唔少公司值得跟進一下,所以近期文章較多關於個別公司的討論。

話說回來,如果你是迪士尼迷,喜歡佢哋的系列節目內容,例如Disney、Marvel、Pixar、Starwars、National Geographic 及 Star ,咁閣下會好開心,因為公司上星期四(12/8/2021)公布業績的同時,宣佈11月在香港、台灣及南韓推出服務,但未有透露訂閱價,現時美國的收費為7.99美元。


圖:迪士尼串流節目內容

如果你是小股東,迪士尼公布的季度業績都算有交待,季度收入170.2億美元,按年升45%,高於預期的167.6億美元,每股收益0.8美元,亦較預期的0.55美元為高。業績靚主要歸功於串流服務客戶大增,加上遊客重返主題樂園。

迪士尼股價去年走勢凌厲,主要基於兩個賣點,第一就是旅遊業復甦,預期疫情影響減退,主題樂園及旅遊服務逐步回復正軌,第二就是串流服務,這亦是未來的增長點。筆者去年都提過,迪士尼股價尚未反映串流服務的潛力。


圖:迪士尼近一年股價走勢(截至13/5/2021)

在剛公布的季度業績方面,Disney+上季新增訂戶1200萬,增速超過Netflix(NFLX)等競爭對手,截至7月3日,用戶達到1.16億,去年同期為5,800萬,也高過市場預期的1.15億。

Netflix用咗超過10年才取得2億幾全球訂戶,而迪士尼推出Disney+不足兩年(2019年11月推出),就有一億幾訂戶的成績😲。

不過也要講句公道說話,Netflix早前公佈的業績令人失望,訂戶人數增長比預期慢,其中原因是一些熱門劇集的製作和推出受疫情影響,所以下半年表現才會見真章。

串流服務競爭激烈

值得一提,今時今日串流服務競爭越來越激烈,Netflix以及Amazon Prime等早已積極在全球擴大版圖, 迪士尼要分一杯羹,需要不少的投資,特別在內容方面,而這也是勁燒錢的部份,未來開支會大增,財務風險也增加。 不過,迪士尼的優勢是旗下有眾多受歡迎的品牌,應該有不少的擁躉,也是這個原因,服務一出已成為城中話題。

對筆者來說,對Disney+有一定的期望,也是這個原因,去年已經入咗貨做咗小股東,並打算採取長線的投資策略。不過,要訂閱它的串流服務,暫時要認真考慮下。雖然我是個美劇迷,但早已同時訂閱了Netflix以及Amazon Prime。前者在本地化服務做得很好,大部份劇集都有中文字幕,但Amazon Prime大部份都只有英文字幕,要打入大中華市場當然唔及Netflix,不過Prime的賣點不限於串流服務,還有其他物流、音樂等額外服務。相信好多訂戶好似我咁,再多訂新串流服務,真的唔會咁隨便,好多劇集等緊新一季的續集,服務唔易cut,但再俾錢訂又嫌多😅,這是Disney+遲咗入場的不利因素。

(利申:筆者持有迪士尼)

(17/8/2021)

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