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短評模擬投資組合

偶然打開一本中文的財經雜誌,看到一個模擬投資組合,有感而發又想分享一下看法。


這個組合以投資美股及ETF佔多數,資金100萬港元,成立接近兩年,回報26.5%,看似不錯,不過由基金成立至今,如果買一隻追蹤標普500指數的ETF ,例如SPY,這段期間回報接近40%,換言之,這個基金組合其實是跑輸大市。


圖: 基金模擬投資組合(圖片來源:imoney 雜誌)

筆者用再利用它的資料,整理另一個圖表,可以看得清楚:


圖: 基金模擬投資組合(2)
註:筆者利用雜誌提供的試算表整理圖表,可能因為日子不同,收市價及回報跟刊出雜誌圖表有出入。

組合投資最多的是JPST,這是投資三個月短債的ETF。總體投資分佈有點令人摸不著頭腦。

不過先帶一帶頭盔,這個基金組合背後理念/目標/規則,筆者並不清楚,因為之前並沒有留意到,可能有特別背景,令到有這樣的回報。

贏不到大市 最好齊齊追蹤大市

話說回來,如果我是投資者,上述模擬組合的成績,是會比較失望的,看一看這個組合內容,其實大部份以美股為主,波動性和風險,並不比一隻追蹤標普500指數的ETF為低,所以回報只得26%,在總體投資環境唔錯下,作為一個模擬組合,成績是強差人意。正如筆者以前提過,如果投資成績持績跑輸大市,我會乾脆買基金或者追蹤指數的ETF便算了。

我們建立一個投資組合,若經過認真的研究,組合的組成是可以反映個人性格和投資目標,例如是一個傾向進取型,還是一個傾向穩健型。毋庸置疑我一向是一個進取型,股市越波動越進取。

我的模擬組合

如果要組織類似大路的基金組合,我會飛走債券及黃金ETF部份,一般香港散戶是不太懂債券及黃金投資,特別是投資黃金,黃金走勢很難捕捉 。另外,會將股份數目收窄至六至七隻,並以追蹤標普500指數ETF 、環球增長型股票的ETF做核心,利用ARKK、GBTC、追蹤羅素2000(美股中小型公司)ETF等作為爭取更大回報的投資工具。股市波動時,增持現金作為減低風險的方法,這樣的配置屬於中度風險的組合。

以上提到的ETF,筆者在早前的文章都介紹過,大家有興趣可以重溫一下。

如果是你,又會怎樣組織一個大路的基金組合?

(3/5/2021)

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