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股市發生甚麼事?投資如何是好?

英國行出最大膽的一步,就是撤銷所有關於針對控制疫症的個人限制,星期一全球股市報以大跌市來迎接。或者英國人原本開開心心以為可以回復免受束縛的日子,但全球股市反而擔心太過自由,令到疫情傳播得更快、更廣,最後難以收拾。部份原本熱炒的經濟復甦股,一日之間打回原形。

要評論這個大跌市, 因為關乎市場投資氣氛,其實很難作出什麼判斷,只可以用拭目以待來到形容,看看這一個大跌市會否成為市場轉捩點的一個開端,暫時只覺得是市場恐慌,借勢調整。

現時可以做些甚麼?放鬆一下心情,跌市唔使太慌張,但又唔好太進取,現時擔心的是會否轉勢,轉勢的話, 即是大家覺得經濟復甦無望,原本今年才轉強的傳統經濟股,例如油股、金融股,動力大大減弱。

美股增長動力或減弱

市場發展到現時,投資熱炒的股份,不少動力已減弱,在剛開始的業績高峰期,部份派咗成績表的美股公司,業績雖然符合市場預期,不過看看細節,不難發現公司業務增長的動力正在減弱,以往業績升得多, 主要是受到疫情的影響,例如疫情受惠股,受惠閉關、顧客局住幫趁,而疫情受累股,則由於去年同期跌得多,基數低,近兩季收入回復正常令到數字來一個大反彈,這些影響因素開始減弱,令到市場擔心下一季的季績。

也是上述的因素,見到近日一些公司如銀行股出了業績,表現符合市場預期,或者略好過預期,股價仍要下跌,就是看了細節,擔心靚靚業績無以為繼。

香港股市也有隱憂

個多星期前,中國人民銀行突然間大幅放寬了存款準備金率,其實並不是一個好兆頭,反映內地經濟並不太理想,所以放寬的幅度比正常還要大、放寬的範圍亦比較廣。

放寬存款準備金率的 “功用”,是讓中國的銀行唔使鎖死咁多錢作壞帳準備,可以借多啲錢出去做生意,幫助刺激經濟。以往一般都是放寬0.25%,這次則加碼一次過去到0.5%,全部銀行都受惠,而不是以往慣常的指定中小型銀行。這個力度令人聯想到中央對經濟的憂慮,也是這個原因, 放寬存款準備的消息出來,對港股的刺激不大,股市升得唔多。

香港上市大部份都是中資股,唔係中資股的,都是以內地市場作為增長動力的公司,所以中國經濟表現呆滯,亦會對港股造成影響,所以在這季度,無論是美股或港股,投資的時候亦都要謹慎一啲。

(21/7/2021)

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