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股市表現差 5 隻防守股成避難所

股市又再大跌,市況仍充斥好多不明朗因素,都係唔好咁貪婪住,繼續介紹一啲防守性股票給大家。

科技股、中小企跌最傷

通脹回落幅度不似預期,美股星期二又借勢插水,唔係專業的炒家們如何搵食。年初至今(13/9/2022),反映傳統大企業的道瓊斯指數下跌了14%, 標普指數下跌了17.5%,反映中小型企業表現的羅素2000指數跌18%,而跌得最傷的是科技股,納斯達克指數又進入了熊市,跌咗四分一,近26%。

按個別行業表現,能源股和公用仍有進帳,消費品中的必需品跌得比較少。 跌得最傷的依次序就是通訊、科技和奢侈品。

這些表現很容易理解,油價急升帶動油股上升,能源類股份自然受惠,公用股和消費必需品屬於防守性的股份,在波動市況下,投資者避險意識高漲,這類股份自然有支持。

5隻防守性大藍籌

話得說回來,當通脹升溫,美國通脹高達8.3%,物價越嚟越貴,自然削弱人民的消費能力,大家都會左慳右慳,不必要的支出,盡量都會減省,所以奢侈品市場收縮,必需品就受影響較少。

睇睇幾隻大大隻的防守性必需品股,年初至今波動比大市低。當中,可樂更加逆市有升幅。不約而同,這幾隻股份都係派息貴族的一員。

圖:5隻防守性大藍籌基本資料

可樂的表現更加標青,這隻老牌防守性消費品,公司夠大,在市場形成了一道護城河,財務又唔錯, 邊際利潤及股本回報都出色,所以一向都有唔少的捧場客,包括股神畢菲特,同時也是世界最具價值品牌公司之一。

這幾隻股份中,筆者比較喜歡Costco. 有關大型超市的介紹,可以重溫半年前的文章:大型超市走勢強Costco跑贏Amazon

大市跌中,其他股票跌到冇朋友,但呢批貴族就氣定神閒,相對上,估值方面變咗冇咁吸引。

圖:5隻防守性大藍籌股價表現

整體來說,通脹升溫,美國聯儲局有咗理據不留情地大幅加息,美國經濟無可避免要回落,問題是硬着陸,還是軟着陸的分別。如果是前者,經濟就坎坷,如果能夠軟着陸,經濟稍稍回軟,不過弱經濟的情況或者要持續一些時間,這批防守性公司繼續扮演避風塘角色。長線來說,可以見到大市調整有所喘定後分段換碼撈貨。

(15/9/2022)

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