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買滙豐賺息蝕價?倒不如買呢隻

滙豐(0005)股價又跌到海嘯價,正在$30水平來一個保衛戰,面對這個弱勢,作為它的小股東,咪話唔心傷😢。

滙豐的積弱已不是一時三刻的事,前幾年股價反彈一段小時間就長期沉底,但仍有不少小股民不離不棄,原因就是滙豐以往派息十分吸引,普遍都有六、七厘以上,計埋股息的回報,還可以算得上賺息蝕價,都唔使蝕錢。

不過,情況今年扭轉了,受到肺炎疫情影響,各地的經濟大受打擊,企業倒閉陸續湧現,銀行借出去的錢有可能收唔番,令到壞帳增加,所以滙豐都要跟隨英國政府的指示,罕有地停止派發股息,一些未離場的小股民更加感到無奈。

如果大家作最壞打算,用賺息蝕價策略,其實可以有更好的選擇,筆者想起另一隻以英國為主要收入的長江基建(1038)。

長江基建的派息頗為吸引,有6%之多,派息穩定,即使經歷過英國脫歐公投、英國經濟下滑,以及肺炎疫情的影響,派息沒有大幅減少,為股東提供穩定現金流。


圖1:長江基建的派息走勢(截至2020年度中期)資料來源:AASTOCKS

這一隻股份的業務其實都是一些公用事業,包括能源、交通及水處理基建等。營運範圍遍及香港、中國內地、英國、歐洲、澳洲、新西蘭及加拿大。不過由於不是新經濟股,主要收入又來自英國,英國收緊了公共事業經營者的准許回報,加上英磅疲弱,所以股價不濟,年初以來跌了三成。


圖2:長江基建及滙豐股價表現

不過相比於滙豐,長江基建的前景會比較好一些,一來在低息環境之下,對滙豐這一隻銀行股的發展較為不利。長建業務對經濟敏感度不及滙豐,如果英國經濟改善,長建表現有望重拾升軌,但這未必是一年半載的事。幸好公司派息政策穩定又吸引,對已調整不少的長建有一定的支持。

如果不介意蝕價賺息,又有耐性揸長線,長建會比滙豐吸引,不過這類長線的投資,分段或月供策略勝算較大,同時,以目前市況,話唔定年底或明年初,美國大選後入市機會更好,至少國際政治形勢明朗化一啲。

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