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還投資中港股市嗎?

中共最高領導層完成換屆後,港股曾狂瀉過千點,資金用腳來反映對港股及中國經濟後市的看法。這個時候還留在港股的你,是守還是退?

香港股市早前曾經跌穿左15,000點,去到1997年香港回歸前水平, 25年的投資得個吉🍊。事實上自從中國經濟增長放緩,香港股市已經欠了活動,股市反覆在區間徘徊,即係躺平咗好耐,多年來要從港股賺錢並不容易。

近日港股狂瀉後反彈,或者因為有國家隊出手穩定大局,但由於這次中共最高領導層換屆,俾唔到一啲新景象或信心,外資唔少都死心了,一來中國經濟仍然唔太樂觀,又有與美國的貿易緊張關係,加上政策上要適應新方向,這是很難捉摸。

另一方面,中國鄰近的新興市場,例如印度、越南、 印尼、菲律賓等前景比大陸更為樂觀,要投資新興市場的話,何不選擇這些地區呢?

當然,有人辭官歸故里,亦有人漏夜趕科場,有基金經理覺得,近期的暴跌提供一個很大的撈底機會,對中國的前景仍然有信心,覺得不會走回頭路。

對筆者來說,早已經對中國及香港股市失去了耐性,過去多年,港股無論是一些中資股,或者本地的藍籌股,甚至是傳統收息股,表現越來越差,賺錢的難道比美股更加大,所以已經逐漸轉過去美股市場,甚至將強積金的組合,踢走晒港股及中資股份,未來的日子,重點依然會在美股身上。

以往中國經濟增長快速,有活力、有動力,同時對政策的方向較易了解,所以長揸港股,短炒中資股,都有不少的收穫。但近多年來,投資者對中國的經濟可謂無所適從,方向的轉變並不是從商業角度出發,同時亦冇一個大藍圖、大方向給大家去評估,長期持有一隻中資股,風險越來越高,加上國進民退,民營企業失勢,大型科網公司都唔例外,市場亦都少了一些活力,這樣很難不死心。

圖:港股近5年走勢

幾時才重返港股市場?

香港經濟與大陸都已經不可分割,要重返香港股市,便要待中國的嚴密防疫政策有所放寬,以及經濟方向有清晰的藍圖,加上政策的轉變有利營商環境,最好政策上有一些刺激的方案出台,為股市提供了一些催化劑,否則即使股市出現反彈,最終可能只是短暫性的曇花一現。

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