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邊隻大型美國銀行股做得好?

美股在本星期踏入銀行股業績期,最觸目的首推幾隻大型銀行股,在派成績表前,或者先來一個簡單的檢閱。

美股大型銀行股本星期公布業績時間表:
星期三: 摩根大通 (JPM)、高盛(GS)
星期四:花旗銀行(C)、美銀 (BAC)
星期五:摩根士丹利(MS)

雖然銀行股近月出現回吐,但在公布業績前,市場仍然對前景寄予厚望。除了經濟反彈,有利做生意,亦希望銀行可以恢復回購股份。

在去年底及今年初,筆者曾經寫過兩篇關於銀行股的文章 《揀滙豐? 睇埋美銀、花旗先》《呢隻金融股ETF終於跑贏大市》,至今銀行股走勢都同預期差不多。有興趣可以重溫一下。

年初至今,表現最好的是美銀(BAC),股價上升了超過三成達到32%,這家銀行的零售銀行業務佔比重較大,經濟敏感度較高,經濟隨疫情影響減低而有所好轉,令到美銀行被市場看好。此外,投資大行高盛(GS)亦都有兩成半的升幅,一眾大型銀行股當中,匯豐(HSBC, 0005.HK)的增長對比較遜色,但仍然錄得近一成半的升幅,股價跑贏標普500指數,以及香港的恒生指數。另一方面, 一隻追蹤金融股指數的ETF :XLF,年初至今升咗20%,亦都跑得快過匯豐。這是美股吸引的地方,即使大型國際銀行股,也可以有不少優質選擇。

圖:大型銀行股股價表現(截至12/4/2021)

市場憧憬經濟環境改善,銀行股的表現普遍被看高一線,加上近年興起的SPAC(Special Purpose Acquisition Company 特殊目的收購公司),大家預期會令到投資銀行的生意更加暢旺,且看這幾天銀行股公布的業績、派息及管理層對前景的看法,會有更多的頭緒。

關於什麼是SPAC,大家不妨重溫之前的詳細介紹:想趁熱鬧投資SPAC?3隻ETF幫到手

講到銀行股,筆者正在做緊功課,想介紹當中一隻轉型中的股份,稍後再慢慢討論。

(14/4/2021)

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