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點樣從股市大升賺錢?

港股在資金推動之下,昨日(25/1/2021)再度急升,恒生指數升咗七百多點,升幅達到2.4%,不過50多隻藍籌中,能跑贏大市的只有12隻,換言之,過半數股份受惠唔太多。正如筆者早前提到,用大包圍方法去迎接這輪升浪,簡單得多。

今次唔係介紹股份俾大家,而係帶大家走出圈圈之外,了解股市的操作。股市上升可以有好多原因,如果你睇準背後有乜嘢動力,採取相應策略,贏面會比較大。

咁又再講下故仔。有啲升市真係要趁勢,慢咗就會打回原形。

有一啲時候,市況持續多時好淡靜、買賣兩閒,突然間多咗資金流入,股市動力好似加大咗,於是有人趁勢,利用衍生工具,例如期指、期權去買升。

市場在呢啲投機操作推動之下,升勢進一步加大。於是乎有啲分析員又要調整睇法,至少修訂之前目標價,再為升市解畫,令到升市好似順理成章咁。

股市升,再吸引內地資金。內地以散戶佔多,其實內地基金都唔少係散戶心態,見到升市就唔會執輸。如是者,令到市況越升越有,直至開始多有人覺得貴,或者開始多人轉軚,在衍生工具上,由買升轉咗買跌(如沽空活動),股市慢慢逆轉過來。一批醒目的資金率先撤離,另一批認為股市再創新高的,唔捨得離場的,最後有可能要蝕錢收場。

這就形成大大小小的升浪,可能升得快,回得亦快,之後又再打橫行,等待一輪的升浪(這也解釋到筆者早前寫過一篇文章, 担到盈富基金(2800)並不是大家預期那麼容易賺錢)。

次升浪可以持續幾耐?

上述講到的市況,過去港股試過很多次,這一輪的升浪可否持續下去,要看多個因素,最重要是有沒有實質理劇去支持。

市場升純粹因為資金泛濫,漫無目的,只是炒作主題,升勢好難維持得耐。這樣想利用這個市況賺錢,用大包圍,短線目標,炒市不炒股易有收穫。

如果升市有實質理劇去支持,如中國經濟真的好到加零一,企業大部份賺錢,或者中央政策加大力度撐經濟,如早年的家電下鄉,鼓勵人民換電器,電器股賺錢賺到笑,同時賺咗好多年,這時揀股不揀市,十倍股等緊你發掘💪🏻。

話說回來,今次升浪看到的是資金帶動,資金會否源源不絕南下,同時內地經濟是否可以看高一線,吸引全球資金入嚟香港買國企,這要拭目以待,但短期內,看到的是熱錢,停泊在香港,所以投資時要留意市況。

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