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一隻受惠疫情緩和收租股

在肺炎疫情肆虐的日子,當大家去到尖沙咀、銅鑼灣這些高級商場,特別是自由行喜歡去的地方,到零售業的悽慘情景😭😭😭,吉舖甚多。也是這個原因,令到九倉置業(1997)的股價跌到谷底,今年以來,下跌的幅度超過三成,成為表現最差藍籌的第三名。

事實上,自去年中以來,本地的地產股都受到大型社會運動影響,加上今年肺炎疫情肆虐,旅遊業大受打擊,又有港區國安法推出,令到香港經濟這年來跌到入谷底,多家的跨國奢侈品的品牌陸續撤出香港。作為高級零售旺區大地主的九置,議價能力大不如前,不得不減租,也是這個原因一年來股價低處未算低,今年以來跌幅超過三成,僅次於滙豐(0005)及太古(0019)之後,最差的藍籌。

圖:九置(1997)與恒生指數今年以來股價(至21/8/2020)

經過一輪大調整之後,加上近期香港肺炎疫情有緩和的跡象,市場又憧憬零售市道最差的時間或者有望過去,大行唸得更樂觀,憧憬本地及遊客消費慢慢地復甦,令到九置的股價最近幾個月以來回穩。

九倉置業做啲乜?

九龍倉 (0004) 在2017年把海港城及時代廣場等核心物業,分拆成九倉置業上市。九置持有由海港城、時代廣場、會德豐大廈、卡佛大廈、尼依格羅品牌旗下香港美利酒店及荷里活廣場六項香港物業,以及兩項位於新加坡的會德豐廣場和Scotts Square商場。

圖:集團物業架構(資料:公司年報)

九置是否真的轉勢?

如果肺炎疫情持續緩和,本地零售業有所改善,而自由行又可以慢慢放寬的話,九置會是受惠者之一,因為相較於其他本地收租股,九置的主要收入,較為側重於零售業的租金。而這類的地產收租股,收入除了租金,還有跟租戶的分成,換言之,零售商收入增加,作為業主的九置也可以從中分一杯羹。

九置息率升至6.1%,有一定的吸引力。比起普遍房地產信托基金的大約七厘股息略低,不過講到資產質素,九置當然勝一籌。

圖:房產基金息率(%)

結語

香港經濟的弱勢會持續多久?政局的發展會否進一步影響經濟表現?加上肺炎疫情會否又再反彈?在種種不明朗的情況之下,股價能否真的從谷底大幅反彈,也是未知數,不過股份調整不少,又有6厘的股息,長線投資來說有一定的吸引力,不過,大家投資的時候,還是要小心衡量短期仍有的波動。

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