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中電、港燈和煤氣仲值唔值得買?

傳統食息一族擁戴的收息三寶:中電(0002)、港燈(2638)和煤氣(0003)近兩年被人冷待了。2020年股價不單跑輸大市,煤氣更減少派紅股,對小股東嚟講都咪話唔心淡😫,未來呢幾隻股份,值唔值得繼續投資呢?

2020可說是科網股的天下,持有科技股的小散戶相信有不少斬獲,相反買股票收息,隨時賺了利息蝕了股價,因為穩健高息股的股票不單沒有進賬之餘,還調整不少。

傳統上高息股具有防禦的功能,即使股市大跌,它們的表現會比其他股份較為穩陣,但2020年是頗為特別的一年,在疫情困擾下,經濟低迷,不過科技股就乘機崛起,令到股市走向兩極化,傳統的股票就跟隨傳統情況冇運行,收息股也一樣跟傳統股份下跌。事實上,經濟差,店舖和一般市民用電、煤氣亦都會減少,公用股無可避免也受到衝擊,不過在經濟低迷下,大股東仍然維持派息金額不變,只有煤氣送紅股送少了,由以往十送一,減至20送一紅股,此舉其中一個好處唔使因為送紅股,股價拆得太細,令到股價再縮水。

三寶逐隻講

中電
中電2020年中期業績有改善,主要因為之前澳洲經營方面要減值拖累收入,這個因素再沒有出現,所以業績轉虧為盈,面對香港經濟低迷,公司仍維持派息金額不變,對小股東有交代。

港燈
受到用電量減少,港燈2020年中期業績倒退,不過派發的股息依然維持不變。港燈的表現比中電好,原因之一就是沒有澳洲經營方面的拖累,加上公司本身屬於商業信托,賺幾多錢派幾多錢,派息一般比中電高。

煤氣
煤氣去年中期業績倒退,派息亦都維持不變,不過上年因為經濟唔好, 送紅股的做法大縮水,由10送一減少到20送一紅股。至於2020年全年會否繼續縮水,定係回復返傳統多年的做法,就要睇遲下嘅全年業績報告(一般在3月公布)。


圖:中電、港燈和煤氣股價及派息
註: 2020年(股價)表現未計派息,以及煤氣20送一紅股。

要解釋這幾隻收息股表現,其實可以從不同的角度,包括市場運作、業務收入和派息來分析。

資金對本土企業興趣減

自從在2019年連串的大型社會運動,再加上2020年的國安法實施,都令到本土的股份表現出現很大的變化。傳統上,這三隻穩穩陣陣的股票,都是本地食息一族,以及一些退休基金(包括外國的退休基金)熱捧的對象。但社會及經濟形勢的轉變,又有疫情肆虐之下,香港經濟出現萎縮,外資又撤出香港的投資市場,另一邊廂,香港近期的升勢,由資金帶動,資金不少來自內地,中國資金一些存有政治的目標,亦同時對中資股會較為偏好,傳統本地的企業沒有主題炒作,不會是他們哪一杯茶。高息股少了資金的支持,股價也易跌難升。

三寶仍然有吸引力

不過,爛船有三根釘,何況這三寶也不是爛船😄,本身的優勢依然存在,業務收入有基本的保障, 經濟再差也都要在家煮食、用電用煤氣。只是因為經濟不景令到短時間收入減少,一旦疫情過去,市場回復正軌,收入可以回復過來,所以原有的小股東也不必太擔心。等到收入增加,派息方面也可以回升,加上股價調整過後,提升了股息率。

以現時三間公司派發的股息來看,都有3%或以上,有一定的吸引力。如果大家投資的目標是以收息為主,這樣這幾隻股票,仍然可以滿足到你的要求。內地雖然也有不少的派高息股份,但從國家政策、經濟環境、公司管治水平,以及資訊的透明度來說,本土這三隻傳統收息股,仍然有它們的吸引力。只是在大升市底下,人升呢幾隻唔升,感覺無比的寂寞☹️。

結語

總結一句,個人的看法就是如果你是食息一族、以長線投資作為目標,同時亦都是懶人投資,這三隻股份的基本吸引力依然存在,仍然可以為大家提供股息方面的現金流,如果未來各地都繼續採取量化寬鬆的政策,在低息的環境,高息股也會有捧場客。不過如果想爭取更大的回報,就要考慮其他類型的股份。

利申:筆者直接或間接持有以上股份

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