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何解美股升咁多?🤔

美國昨晚公布的通脹數字高過市場預期, 美股原先按劇本大跌,但好快收復失地不特止,道指收市仲大升828點(幾好意頭😄),幅度達2.8%,標普指數升93點或2.6%。大家都摸不着頭腦,何解美股升咁多? 是否轉勢有望?

星期四公佈的美國9月通脹數字,按月升0.4%,高過市場預計的0.3%,是1980年代初期以來的最高水平。唔計食品與能源價格的核心通脹,升0.6%,亦高過市場預期,回到40多年來的最高水平。

連跌多日的美股,見到這個數字,一開市自然再跌多下。誰知好快來個大翻身,全日的走勢好似過山車,先急插後飆升,一日之內高低位點的數波幅多達1507點。

何解美股升咁多?

一朝起來,筆者見到美股升咁多都唔太相信,連美國及外國媒體都話 “匪夷所思”。點解通脹熱到爆,但股市表現出乎意料之外?咁神奇的表現都值得趁下熱鬧討論下。

何解美股升咁多?

  1. 市場早已偷步消化咗壞消息,另外,有心人早早部署來一個大反攻。不要忙記,美股在公布通脹數字前都瀉咗好幾日,唔使等到數據出先做反應。
  2. 美國企業公布的業績依然理想。目前正處於業績公布期,近日公布的公司業績,都有唔錯表現,例如百事可樂PepsiCo (PEP)不單數字好過預期,管理層調高對前景的睇法。反映前景都唔係一面倒咁暗淡,有助支撐大市的表現。
  3. 通脹升得多,有人覺得離到頂不遠,所以態度出現大逆轉。
  4. 股市連跌多日再大插,出現技術反彈,以及引發一些沽空盤獲利情況。

圖:標普指數5年走勢

事實上,股市調整多時,通脹升溫、加息步伐加快,以外外圍的地緣政局緊張,令到股市大幅波動,成為低沉咗好耐的對沖基金,有大顯身手的機會。股市雖然來一個大反彈,但問題仍在,投資都要繼續審慎好啲。

(14/10/2022)

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