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內銀股跟滙豐都係難兄難弟

近期市場的焦點聚焦在滙豐銀行(0005) ,其實中資銀行股唔好得好多,四大國有銀行包括工行 (01398) 、建行 (00939)、中行 (03988) 、農行 (01288),近期都創過五年新低。經濟環境不利銀行股,派高息都補唔番,更何況派息有機會減少。

滙豐今年以來跌了54%,內銀股一樣跑輸大市。今年至今港股調整了約一成六,但內地四大國有銀行,表現最好的建行都跌兩成半。最大隻的工行縮水33.5%,派息七、八厘都補唔番。


圖: 內銀股今年以來表現(截至25/9/2020)

羅兵咸永日前發表《中國銀行業回顧與展望》報告,統計52間中國上市銀行上半年淨利潤為9101.5億元人民幣,按年下跌9%,是史上首次出現整體負增長😱。

經濟差、壞帳多,加上要肩負起國家任務,不可以只顧自己的利潤,即是應中央要求作「銀行讓利」,犧牲自己的利益幫手挽救經濟,咁樣股價點會唔跌😩。這也是筆者對中資股作長線投資有一定保留的原因,國家幾時出手、點出手是好難估。手上賺的錢好易又溜走咗,有機會再分享經驗。

內銀股早前公布的中期業績,資產質素,即係壞賬情況都惡化,由於內銀股都是一年先派一次息,大家預計未期息好大機會都會派少啲,但相信好似滙豐咁唔派息的機會較低,因為近年國家政策鼓勵企業多派息。

買銀行股真的要三思

滙豐跌完又跌,其中一個因素是暫停派息,可能有部份小散戶轉移去買內銀股,以為仍然有高息派,不過,大家真係要睇定先,經營環境差係普遍銀行股面對問題,不單是歐美銀行,連內地銀行股都一樣。所以在這個艱難時期,都係忍忍手。當收入減少,股價大跌,賺息蝕價都冇用。

其實銀行股這類舊經濟股在過去幾年表現唔太好,長期都跑輸大市,筆者最後一隻持有過的內銀股是建行,早於多年前都賣出去了,大家有興趣可以睇番我在2017年寫過的文章:100萬之路:跟建行說再見。

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