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冇息派、股價又落後的滙豐你還買嗎?

滙豐(0005)在4月1日愚人節宣布暫停派發股息之前,筆者曾經在YouTube上載2段短片,分別是《投資滙豐要知的5件事》及《如何趁大跌市吸納高息股》,提醒投資滙豐要留意的事項,不要只貪高息。故仔出街後,引起一些滙豐支持的負評,認為買滙豐冇得輸。結果不久滙豐宣布停止派息,股價亦都拾級以下。

由年初至今(截至7月20日),滙豐的股價下跌了四成,在藍籌股當中是尾二最差,稍稍比持有國泰航空的太古A (0019)45%跌幅好少少😭,股價跌得這麼傷,經營環境差及暫停派息都是主要原因。

圖1 滙豐與恒生指數股價走勢

買滙豐賺息蝕價唔划算

一直以來,香港散戶對滙豐特別鍾情,除了因為滙豐是一隻大藍籌,派息非常慷慨,普遍都有6厘以上,同時也因為滙豐的表現,曾經有一段輝煌的日子,所以我們時常聽聞 “買滙豐有買貴冇買錯”, “聖誕鐘買滙豐”,其實這些已經是好多年前的過去式。

過去十年,買入滙豐,即使有吸引的股息,但股價表現長期不濟,賺到的股息雖然能夠抵銷股價的損失,但回報低得可憐,比起保守的年金還不如。

在我們網上課程《用年金計劃自製長糧》,曾經用滙豐跟年金做一個比較,由2010年頭至2019年年底,十年間,用一百萬元買滙豐,期間股價下跌了約32%,即是損失了31萬8千多元,從滙豐賺取的股息就有40萬5千多元,總體來說, 10年間,投資滙豐只賺了$8萬7千多 ,回報率8.7%。

假設年金計劃毎年內部回報率是3厘,十年合共收到大約115萬元,相當於總回報率15.65%,大幅跑贏滙控。


圖2 滙豐跟年金十年回報比較

用賺息蝕價來投資滙豐,計落只有微利,現在連派息都欠奉,難怪被股民離棄。

記得早年學投資時,滙豐也是我的starter stock,帶來不錯賺錢的經驗☺️。不過,時移世易,投資環境的變化,不利銀行業。至今手上沒有持有任何銀行股。

投資滙豐要睇位入市

滙豐是銀行股的龍頭企業,但銀行股屬於周期性的股份,對經濟敏感度高,會隨着經濟表現而波動,買這類股票真的要睇位入市。

所以大家想投資這一隻股票,就要懂得從大環境出發,經濟差的時候,商業活動減慢,能夠供得起樓的人減少,樓市受影響,銀行按揭生意也減少,加上經濟不景氣,壞賬增加,銀行的收入自然差,這時並不是投資銀行股的好時機。

滙豐的投資時機

幾時買滙豐最好?當然對小股東來說,首先是銀行幾時回復派息?派多少?是否有吸引力?如果銀行願意回購公司份,又是利好的訊號,不過,最重要是看銀行賺錢能力,這要看看幾個重要因素:

1. 經濟是否有所改善?特別是滙豐主要收入來源:香港和英國
2. 利率是否見底回升?加息有助銀行的收入增加。
3. 政府對銀行的監管是否放寬

結語

受到武漢肺炎疫情影響,全球經濟進入低谷,各地政府不惜大開水喉,在減息的環境下,銀行面對的經營環境頗為不利。

滙豐主要市場在香港及英國,兩地都面對不同的負面經濟環境,例如香港的國安法,影響外資的投資信心,在經濟低迷下再雪上加霜。而英國就要面對脫鈎後的不利環境,沒有高息支持下的滙豐,吸引力再減。預期短期內,股份難獲股民的垂青,現階段希望想趁低吸納,便要三思。

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