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回顧2022年投資策略

2022年是股市動盪的一年,美股三大指數都出現重大調整,亦都係近十多年以來最差的一年,筆者去年的投資表現亦都不堪入目,亦是近十年多以來成績最差的一年。我舊年做過啲乜嘢?何解沒有出手去保住自己的本金呢?

2022年在美股投資,越進取就蝕得多, 反映傳統類型股份的道瓊斯指數,下跌百分之8.8,反映普遍大藍籌表現的標普500指數下跌19.4%,而反映科技股表現的納斯達克指數跌得最深,縮水三份一,跌幅為33.1%。

美股2022年的表現,其實是承接2021年的走勢,通脹升溫、加息步伐越來越快,再加上俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭造成了地緣局勢緊張的局面,推高了油價,令到各地經濟情況雪上加霜。 其實筆者喺2022年的第一季,已經開始分享自己的睇法,認為2022年是宜守不宜攻,所以我亦都遵照自己的看法,大部份時間都是躺平了。 有興趣,不妨回顧之前多篇文章。

👉🏻 通脹升溫2022年投資如何應對?(14/2/2022)
👉🏻 2022上半年投資宜守不宜攻(8/4/2022)
👉🏻 2022年下半年投資攻略 (1/8/2022)
👉🏻 2022年第4季我的投資部署(30/9/2022)

筆者在2022年並沒太多買賣。大家又可能會問,既然過往都經歷過大大小小的股市周期,今次又估計股市表現易跌難升,為何不採取一些防範風險的動作呢? 簡單答案係,唔想要的股票早已經冇得留低,留下來的股票都是有信心長線會造好,只要捱過今次的風浪,之後就會回復升軌。

過往的經驗告訴我,太著眼短線波動,急於把長線投資的股票賣出來避風頭,到頭來要花大量的時間去捕捉再次入市的機會,好多時賣咗之後見到反彈得多唔會再追,結果就買唔番。所以長線來說,一動不如一靜會比較好。

換言之,手上的投資部署是看長線,短線波動就即管俾多一啲耐性。就好像以往投資港交所(0388) 和創科(0669)一樣,前者投資過程試過蝕近一半都唔放手,後者跌過八成以上都只買唔賣,才可以繼續持有,最終享受十倍股的回報。

不過,美股經過去年的調整,不少股份其實頗為吸引,2023年不會是躺平的投資態度,我近日都好積極整理緊一些資料及名單,遲少少同大家分享。

至於港股方面, 政治掛帥的股市好難預測,穩健股票又少了傳統外資基金的支持,中國經濟其實都唔太好,講講下實在沒有入市的動力。

2023年的部署將會是在美股市場看時機去換馬及分段入市,為長線爭取更佳的回報,當然前題是今年不會有太出人意表的政治或經濟發展,令到股市型勢出現重大的扭轉,令市況難以預測。

(3/1/2023)

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