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如何察覺大市變化從而趨吉避凶?

有沒有遇過一些情況,明明股市大升,但手裡的幾藍籌股郤大插水,問題出自哪裏呢? 問題可能源自你對’大市’的變化不大為意,市況逆轉了也不察覺。

掌握投資機遇,或者要趨吉避凶,有很多方法,其中一個簡單的方法,就是看一看股票指數內容的變化,或許給你很多的啟示。

為何股票指數反映不到你的投資?

市場人士所講的 “大市”,其實這主要是指恒生指數的變化。大家都知道股票的指數,例如恒生指數,都是股票市場的風向儀,即是告訴大家今日大部份買賣的股票,整體是升還是跌,不過單單看指數,其實未必一定掌握到股市的動向。

舉一個簡單的例子,今天恒生指數是2萬5千點,整個股市成交金額是1,000億元 ,到了明天,股票指數沒有什麼變化,維持2萬5千點水平,但成交金額高達2,000億元。如果你單單看到股票指數的表現,覺得股市沒有大問題,其實已經可能有暗湧,基金或者在換馬。

恒生指數的變化,由50隻藍籌變動而計算出來的,倘若有些藍籌大跌,另一些藍籌剛好相反,大幅上升,這樣就扺消大跌股份的影響。或者有心人盡量壓低或推高幾隻重磅股,又可以做出一個股市大升或大跌的假象。這也是有些大戶想透過操控股票指數,從衍生市場(如期指、期權)賺錢的方法,只要把幾隻重磅股舞高弄低便可。

新舊經濟股的角力

為何找出這個話題跟大家討論?現時無論是香港股市或是美國股市,都出現新舊交替的現象。即是新經濟股份和傳統經濟股份兩方面的角力。

武漢疫情的出現,對經濟造成沉重的打擊,經濟敏感度高股份如銀行、油股,或傳統經濟股份,例如一些工業、地產、旅遊等股份大受打擊。與此同時經濟低迷,政府要大開水喉,在市場資金泛濫下,熱錢一窩蜂局住投資受惠或受疫情影響較少的股票,不過升幅越來越大,投資者開始覺得高處不勝寒,轉移去看一看一些股價低迷的股份。

恒生指數中,影響股價起落的幾隻大藍籌,離不開騰訊(0700)、滙豐(0005)、友邦(1299),以及一眾的油股及中資銀行股。如果作為科技股龍頭企業的騰訊大跌,而金融股龍頭匯豐、友邦大升,這樣恒生指數最終出來的結果,可能沒有太大的變動。

另方面,有些時候,股票市場不是我們看到的大好。只是有心人托市保持歌舞昇平。留意哪類股份升,哪類跌,或又者可以看到是哪些資金在 “部署”,但這要大家多一點時間觀察和研究,不過,指數成份股的變化,可以給到大家很多的啟示。

實用工具找出藍籌變化及影響

我們怎樣可以察覺這當中的變化呢?網上有不少的資源可以給大家看到恒生指數成份股的變動,這個網站(AAStocks)是其中之一。大家可以試試按一下升跌,排一下次序,可以看到當日升幅(或跌幅)最大的股份。

想了解邊幾隻重磅股對藍籌影響最大,可以去恒生指數公司,在每日報表一欄,選擇下載成份股每日變動情況便可。

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