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我對加密貨幣未死心

美國早期有興趣參與加密貨幣業務的銀行似乎出現了跳船潮。最新的是Metropolitan Bank Holding (MCB),宣布結束相關的部門。不過有人辭官歸故里,亦都有人漏夜趕科,科技女股神Cathie Wood早前曾增持了有關的股份如Coinbase(Coin).

筆者一直都持有Coinbase,去年的回報勁蝕八成,是個人組合中表現最差的一隻。不過至今一股都冇減持過,跌得這麼厲害只有無奈感覺,但投資時早有心理準備,這是一隻極高風險的投資,況且我仍相信,捱過這次的股災,日後仍可以走得更前。

加密貨幣急升暴跌

早兩年加密貨幣發展有很大突破,由小眾的投資慢慢走入大眾市場,對沖基金率先把這新興資產加了入投資組合之內。進取的金融公司也接受加密貨幣成為交易貨幣,令到這個市場成為了好大的藍海,相關資產升值速度好似坐火箭。

加密貨幣中的表表者Bitcoin,表現沉寂多年,終於在2021年發圍,價值曾於2021年11月創下67,567美元的高位,之後急轉直下,至今僅值一萬七千美元的水平,縮水四分三。追蹤Bitcoin的Grayscale(BTC)自然相同命運。價值急升,Bitcoin被推舉成為投資的熱門資產,,一時間取代了黃金地位。現今仍有未心死的市場分析員認為,加息潮過後通縮會出現,Bitcoin及一些高風險資產有望翻身,且後這些大好友日後有多準確。

圖:Grayscale 股價表現

Coinbase大裁員

兩年前上市的Coinbase,作為Bitcoin等加密貨幣交易平台,股價都隨加密貨幣急升暴跌而大起大落。我一向在新科技發展方面接受程度極高,同時亦相信區塊鍊技術對金融市場會有顛覆性的影響,發展可以大家估佢唔到,潛力相當大。既然是自己相信的,自然會用行動投下一票。

在股市退潮下,科技股跌得最傷,加密貨幣出現火燒連環船,多間機構以及貨幣投資出事,近期最矚目莫過於加密貨幣交易所FTX事件,FTX申請了破產保護令,公司創辦人又涉違法行為被補。

面對加密貨幣價值暴跌,交易量又大挫,Coinbase自然交不出成績,股價也跳崖式下跌,近日公司宣佈了大裁員,市場把壞消息當好消息炒,股價稍稍反彈。市場對這一隻股價潛入深海的公司睇法兩極,筆者的睇法是過去加密貨幣價值壞消息連連,好多人擔心Coinbase做唔做得住,如果公司捱得過去,日後會變得更強,我仍會繼續支持。

圖:Coinbase 股價表現

年多前我在介紹Coinbase的同時,也提到投資這類高風險的資產時要小心:”這是個人決定,不要太投入,只用1%至3%的資金來投資是比較合理,與此同時,投資要能承受到80%-90%的損失”。
寫在《港交所vs Coinbase》 (20/7/2021)一文,今次果然一語成讖😂。

筆者在早前列出的20隻跌得最多的美股/資產中,列出了Coinbase以及Bitcoin的ETF: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust,作一個長線的眼光仍然覺得可以留意,特別是價錢已跌到這樣殘,但也要指出風險仍然高。

多年來筆者的投資遇過不少大起大落,有取得逾十倍回報,但有也投資蝕了九成才離場,今次結果如何確是未知數,因為我的部署講緊的是三、五、十年,直至取得滿意回報,或者真的死心為止。

(11/1/2023)

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