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      • A01-如何選擇高息股賺取被動收入(港股)
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      • A05 跟分析員學投資揀股票 (Newbie)
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投資別只顧蠅頭小利 睇大局捉大魚吧

要在股票市場上賺取一、兩陪的回報,其實沒有大家想像中困難,問題是我們投資的心態,往往只着眼於幾個價位的回報,就心滿意足、匆匆離場。 如果沒有長遠、廣闊的眼光,從股票市場上只能賺取蠅頭小利。今次跟大家討論一下,一個較適合小散戶捉大魚其中一個方法。

電視、電台的投資節目,不時聽到有人打電話 ”問功課“,買這隻股票好唔好?乜野價位入最好?而專家的回應,好多時又給一個頗窄的利潤建議空間,例如 “你可以2元買入,2.4元好走啦!”,這種投資回報,作為短炒,給退休人士過日子尚可,但長線的話,很難從股票市場賺錢。另一方面,所謂 “投資專家”,都是來自證券行,客戶輸贏是其次,最重要的就是有買有賣,證券行才可以有佣金收入。

股票市場是一個充滿生機的買賣場所,我們要從某一隻股票賺取數以倍計的回報,並不是天方夜譚,試想一想,一隻股票一年升25%,大約三年時間已經可以幫你賺一陪。看看維他奶(0123)、新意網(1686)這幾年表現,便是一個例證。

較合小散戶捉大魚的揀股方法

我們的網上課程《跟分析員學投資選股票》,有一節提到揀股票的兩種方法,其一是由上而下分析法,是從宏觀到微觀。從最具潛力的行業,揀出潛力個股。這個方法就好似你在風和日麗的季節,在一處土壤肥沃的福地,種下最適合當地生長的植物,只要你沒有買到爛咗嘅種子,基本上都會有收獲。筆者非常同意。

換言之,從當時得令的行業揀股票,即使不幸地選擇了較弱的股票,賺錢機會也比較高,如果能從中揀中一些最有競爭力的公司,回報就以十倍計。 這個方法,對小散戶會較為容易,因為另一個方法,即是技術分析,新手是較難掌握到。

這種看大局或審時度勢的方式,造就了不少的十倍股,以下只是一些例子:

1. 港交所(0388)

港交所的背景相當特別,在香港是一間做獨市生意的股票交易所,沒有競爭對手。它增長最快的日子,其實就是受惠於中國的金融改革,2005年,中國的股權分置改革正式啟動。中國先把質素最優良的股票,送到來香港上市集資,籌集資金,把內地的親戚企業慢慢湊大。當期時大量優秀的國企來港上市,也湊大了香港的股票市場。港交所是最受惠的股份,三年時間成為十倍股

(圖1 港交所股價表現)。

2. 六福珠寶(0590)

中國開放自由行來香港,以中國人喜歡買金的喜好,自然是金飾店壯大的其中一個催化劑。六福也在持續開放自由行下,生意越做越大,股價好像坐火箭一樣持續向上,晉身成為十倍股。

(圖2 六福股價表現)

3. 創維(0751)

2008年金融海嘯之後,為撐經濟,中央政府推出不同的刺激經濟方案,包括鼓勵內需,如家電下鄉 ,對購買家電產品提供補貼,以刺激消費,這個計劃不斷的擴展到不同的地方,以及不同的產品,令到家電企業成為大贏家。 創維股價也暴升十倍。

(圖3 創維股價表現)

以上的例子,筆者在個人投資經驗的文章都分享過,有興趣可以到我們的網站搜尋,來重溫一下😉。

目前的投資大趨勢

科技不斷的變化,社會不斷的進步,如果我們能夠從中掌握到一個大趨勢,審時度勢去選擇股票,加以一點點的耐性,賺大錢也不困難。放在眼前,最明顯的5G 及Cloud Computing,相信也會造就不少十倍股。筆者正在整理相關的內容,希望日後大家再跟大家詳細討論和分析。

另一方面,我們並不一定需要一個太刺激的轉變,才會找到機會,有一些發展是慢慢演變,相關企業的增長是持續和理想,這對一些追求穩健,又要有理想增長的投資者,又是另一批投資對象。 有機會筆者也會仔細和大家研究一下。

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