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投資呢隻ETF我經常輸多贏少😩

港股昨日又再暴跌超過1000點,今年頭的升幅早已蒸發晒😔,買入盈富基金(2800)的話,又係得個🍊。不過今次想講的不是盈富基金,而是另一隻熱門的ETF。

一直覺得投資盈富基金不是想像中容易,而事實上,投資另外一隻熱門的ETF A50中國基金(2823或2822),比盈富基金更難賺錢,筆者買過好多次,多數都係損手收場。

ETF是筆者喜歡的投資工具,當見到整體市場氣氛好,又懶懶地唔想逐隻股票揀,就會用大包圍政策,買入一隻ETF。盈富基金如是,A50都一樣。

A50對經濟敏感度高

A 50中國基金投資的內容是中國最大的50隻股票, 這些股票以金融股佔較大比重,這些都是經濟敏感度比較高的股份,如果內地經濟有好消息,這隻ETF就會做得好、升得快。 同樣地反映內地經濟的亦有另類熱門ETF,就是滬深300指數的基金(有多間不同基金公司推出),不過一向以來,筆者會比較喜歡投資A50中國基金。

A50與滬深300的分別是,A50是追蹤50隻規模最大的基金,當中較側重金融股,佔比重超過三成半,換言之,這隻ETF經濟敏感度高比較高,升起上嚟會比較快,跌時就比較急,適合較短線的投資。

滬深300指數ETF追蹤的是上海及深圳300隻股份,投資範圍比較廣,覆蓋比較全面。走勢相對比較平穩,適合較長線的投資。

內地的經濟增長速度大不如前,經濟逐步轉型,由出口型走向內需,由低端產品走向高增值發展,過程中有起有落。以往作為世界工廠,勞動力需求大,加上還要加大城鎮化, 起路、起橋、起屋等固定資產投資不斷增加,令到經濟增長動力強勁。不過,各地政府大灑金錢大興土木,企業不少又過度借貸,換來是一蘿蘿的債務問題,遇上經濟增長減速。問題進一步浮現。

政策轉向難捉摸

另方面,近年政策方向話變就變,好難估得佢到,令到投資風險上升,股市做好一段時間,突然熱錢一走,升勢無以為繼。此外,股市向好又常遇到政策的轉變,好似向股市撥了一盤冷水,就好似近幾個月以來的情況。

筆者每次買A50 ETF都打算作一個短線投資,好多時因為入市後想睇定啲先,最終因為市場熱錢走得快或者風向轉得太快走唔切,結果損手離場。以往多次經驗試過,短炒唔得不如長揸啦,但結果都沒有改善😫。

中國股市好多時好似一眾中資銀行股一樣, 到佢上升的時候,往往都是水尾,全球熱錢尋找出路、追落後,帶動內地及香港股市升一輪,資金一走股市又腳軟。

總括來說,今時今日用大包圍買香港及中國的ETF,時機的掌握要好好,股市經常升完又回,跌咗又反彈多少少,跟住無以為繼,長線投資真的要看大家的耐力,都係一句:宜短不宜長,要審時度勢,夠果斷才有好收成。

(27/7/2021)

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