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投資港股定美股好?點解要2揀1?

以往筆者有一個習慣,投資主要揀番香港市場,因為港股始終是自己最熟悉的地區,唔需要花太多時間去管理。不過今時今日,情況完全不同了,越投資美股,發覺選擇的空間遠比香港多和方便。

相信很多人跟我一樣,以前股票投資都以香港為主,一來這是我們熟悉的市場,二來可以尋找的資訊,特別中文資訊會比較方便,所以筆者以前的投資組合,絕大部份都以香港股票為主。

至於投資美股,除工作需要外,是比較少去鑽研個別股份,買美股主要因為香港搵唔到合適對象,才去美股尋找,例如多年之前,睇好資源類股份,或歐洲/日本市場,就選擇去美股市場物色,因為那裡不單止買賣活躍,同一類型、同一主題之下,有多個選擇,特別是美元強勢,也要尋找一些可以對沖匯率的ETF,免得因為日圓/歐元貶值,令到股票上升也會抵銷了當中的表現。

不過,近幾年情況已經轉變,一來因為香港股票活躍的大部份都是中資股,陌生程度可能比美股更甚,例如美團(3690)如果唔係來港上市,真係唔知佢做甚麼的生意😅,筆者已經N年未返過大陸。第二就是香港和內地股市早兩年表現乏善可陳,所以投資表現和成績一般,而2019年大型的社會運動,以及去年的國安法,令到本土經濟為主的公司,更加受人冷落,在這種情況之下,進一步加速了筆者對美股市場的投入。


圖:恒生指數及標普500指數近兩年表現

香港的優勢就是資訊比較發達,近年證券行同時提供美股和港股買賣,已經差不多可以成為必然的基本盤,收費方面也在競爭之下越來越低,今時今日買美股,收費隨時比港股更加低,所以在這個情況之下,大家都要想一想,投資盡量打破疆界的局限,那裡機會比較大就往那裏投資。

香港和美股的相關性減低

我覺得投資組合可以同時擁有美股和港股,原因就是近年隨着香港跟中國不斷的融合,香港股市的走勢跟着中國走,以前港股受美股影響,今時今日港股主要受內地(盗金)拉動,而內地股市跟美國股市的相關性開始越來越低,其中因素可能因為經濟結構不同,以往中國經濟增長由出口帶動,當然要看著美國的經濟情況,但今天中國 “大國掘起了”,又強調內需或者近年叫的內循環,跟美國的關係可能也比以前疏遠了。這正正提供一個不錯的機會,讓我們兩邊走、一腳踏兩船。

舉一個簡單例子,倘若美國股市已經見頂,我們可以把焦點返回香港和內地,到美股調整一定的幅度,再次回到美股市場趁低吸納,以往就是專注一個市場,股市出現調整,我們都要捱價,等到低潮過後重新起動,但今時今日,就可以轉移到一個相關性相對比較低的地方投資,繼續爭取較佳的回報。

當然,要兩邊走,其實並不是一時三刻可以做到的,不是話今天美股好,投資美股,明天內地股市好就即時轉移陣地,要有一個部署。簡單來說,何不從今天起,讓自己認識兩個市場,哪裡有機會就往哪方去。如果你想輕鬆投資的話,把你嘅注意力集中在幾個高息穩健的投資工具例如ETF、大型的藍籌,其實這已經足夠。

(10/2/2021)

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