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投資滙豐?係咪咁吸引?

滙豐(0005)剛公布了業績,不過實在沒有太大興趣作一個深入的討論和分析,在一眾國際大型銀行股當中,我比較喜歡美股上市的股份。

滙豐公布的季度業績,簡單來說,盈利勁升三倍多,遠好過市場預期,主要因為銀行回撥的金額多了。所謂回撥,就是銀行原本預留一筆資金為壞帳做準備(或稱撥備),但見到經濟環境冇想像咁差,便將部份資金釋放(回撥)出來,這樣令到剛公布的業績好像很省鏡。

滙豐今次回復派息,每股7美仙(約0.546港元),不過就較預期的8美仙至10美仙為低,不設以股代息。管理層放口風,末期股息有望較中期息大增,又話會提早研究回購股份。增派息和回購股分一向都是支持滙豐股價的武器。

事實上,公布業績之後,滙豐股價亦都未見太突出,市場反應不見得好興奮。如果大家有投資美股的話,大型國際銀行股選擇眾多,早在去年12月,筆者都寫過一篇文章:揀滙豐? 睇埋美銀、花旗先,結果都是美銀(BAC)和花旗(C)跑出。


圖:美國大型銀行股股價表現(截至2/8/2021)

收購合併活動增 有利高盛

之後,筆者亦有多篇文章介紹高盛(GS),寫寫下,我都忍唔住入埋貨😅。

銀行股近一年以來,經營環境有改善,加上美國和歐洲監管當局開了綠燈,銀行股通過了壓力測試,可以回復派息、回購股份,這兩個也是支撐股價的有利因素。 雖然近期部份銀行股價走勢回軟,沒有之前那麼強勁,但前景看依然是正面的。

在一眾銀行股當中,筆者其實會比較喜歡高盛。其中一個原因是各地經濟經過重挫之後,慢慢走出谷,一些公司已急不及待趁機會執平貨,市場開始多了收購合併活動,高盛作為投資大行,生意自然受惠唔少,所以前景仍然會唔錯。其他具體的介紹,大家可以重溫以下的文章:

轉型中的投資大行高盛(16/4/2021)

今年以來,美國科技股的走勢已經大不如前,支撐美股再創新高的是較傳統的股份,除了銀行股,還有不少具潛質、可作長線部署的選擇,就例如早前介紹過的基建股,有時間的話,筆者也會做一個跟進。

(4/8/2021)

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