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揀市易投資過揀股?

早兩年美股暢旺的時候,一眾高增長型股份越升越有,新手入場也容易賺錢,市面上出現好多”股神”,信心十足並不時推介分享投資心得。但時移世易, 2022年投資環境變得艱難,不少”股神”消失了,市場投資熱點又回到大包圍的ETF身上。

呢個趨勢唔係我估,係證券業人士講㗎,《金融時報》早前引述證券行IG的北美行政總裁J.J. Kinahan話,佢哋客戶改咗去投資ETF,不再是個別股票,即係揀市不㨂股。佢仲特別提到大路的ETF,好似係追蹤大市的SPDR標準普爾500 Trust ETF(SPY)、反映科技股表現的Invesco QQQ ETF(QQQ)和追蹤中小企走勢的iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)等多咗捧場客。

2022年的投資環境比較複雜,特別係過去多年做得好的科技股,跌得更慘烈,不少股價暴跌超過一半。而投資的環境亦都變得好快,例如防疫政策放鬆了,經濟回復正常的過程出現有不少的樽頸地帶,令到通脹突然爆升,引發加息步伐越走越快,仲有俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭帶來的地緣政局緊張,打擊了全球的經濟,幾個月的變化真係越數越多。

揀股越來越難

在股市低迷下,揀股越來越難,今日市場熱捧呢類股票,下個月投資又轉調了。如果選擇個別的股份,風險會比較大,所以令到不少投資者都轉移去到投資一些傳統的大型股份身上。而較為大路的選擇,就是揀市不揀股,投資整體美股身上。

圖: QQQ、SPY及IWM三隻ETF一年股價表現

倘若美股市場在上半年見底,下半年氣氛又改善的話,可能會有更多的小股民在回復對市場信心前,都係以ETF做投資取向。

不過值得指出的是,美股近一個月以嚟反彈了差不多一成,市場覺得這輪的反彈不會持久,只是對加息的憂慮有所紓緩,但經濟表現都唔算理想,所以股市仍有不少的不明朗因素,投資時都要審慎一點。

(26/8/2022)

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