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揀迪士尼還是Netflix好?

美國股市昨天的表現麻麻,不過有兩隻股份逆流而上,包括迪士尼(DIS)以及Netflix(NFLX),分別上升超過3%和2%,這兩間公司在串流媒體服務上都是競爭對手,究竟迪士尼還是Netflix值得睇好呢?

兩隻股份昨天都有好消息令到股價逆市上升,迪士尼將會進行重組,把主力放在串流服務之上,這也是公司過去的增長點。至於Netflix,股價上升的原因就是取消了美國免費試看的服務。

首先作一個利益申報。筆者曾經持有過Netflix,現時手上有迪士尼股份。

現時沒有持有Netflix並不是因為不看好這隻股票,而是早年沽出之後,股價一直急升,一直都追唔番☹️。

Netflix賣點夠進取

筆者一直都是美劇迷,記得當年Netflix尚未來港,想看美劇唯有花了500多港元年費,安裝質素較佳的VPN,收看迪士尼持有股份的Hulu, 那時Hulu只向美國境內免費提供最新5集的美劇,我用VPN收看,畫面質素認真麻麻,又經常窒吓窒吓,但總好過冇😫。所以當Netflix打入香港市場,筆者不單第一時間幫趁,而且覺得在海外的市場大有作為,所以也買入了美股Netflix。

Netflix的股價也不負眾望,股價越升越有,不過市場開始多了一些雜音,就是公司花太多錢收購節目,令到負債不斷增加,風險急升,當其時筆者也耳仔軟,認同這個憂慮,所以止賺離場,不過只是賺到幾年的年費而已😂,之後Netflix海外市場發展相當迅速,股價長升長有,筆者只可話走了寶。

節目內容是這類串流服務公司的主要競爭力,只有不斷提供具質素、多選擇的內容才容易爭取市場,繼續做市場一哥,但與此同時,節目內容的開支越來越龐大,也令到公司的負債處於一個高水平,所以投資這類公司,你要對公司管理層有信心,才可以放長線爭取一個更加可觀的回報,同時市場的競爭越來越激烈,所以不時要做下功課。

迪士尼賣點在串流服務

至於迪士尼方面,筆者都是在肺炎疫情影響之下才認真研究,一來受到肺炎疫症影響,股價已經調整了,此外,正如筆者在早前的文章講過,迪士尼的賣點就在它的串流服務Disney+,未有疫情影響, Disney+增長十分理想,而迪士尼的股價其實沒有多大反映這方面的前景,這也是買入迪士尼的原因。

迪士尼並不限於只有米奇老鼠,公司近年大舉收購不同的知名公司,包括擁有《星球大戰》的Lucasfilm、漫威(Marvel)、PIXAR、 21世紀霍士(21st Century Fox),這都有利公司進一步壯大旗下娛樂事業。而公司的增長點還有串流媒體Disney+。

今次迪士尼重組業務,將成立新的獨立部門全力發展 Disney+ 和 Hulu 等核心串流事業,似乎市場相當受落,所以股價應聲上升。

Netflix股價跑出 迪士尼有後勁

今年以來,由於受到肺炎疫情的影響,人們要留在家中,所以家看電視的時間多了,Netflix自然受惠,所以年初至今,股價升了66%,相反迪士尼因為主題公園等業務,受到肺炎疫情打擊,以致收入下降,股價至今下跌了14%。不過一旦疫情影響消退,股價或有望從谷底回升,特別是串流媒體服務給了大家多一點憧憬。

值得一提的是,肺炎疫情影響幾時才消散仍是未知數,所以投資時要審慎,未來一段時間未必做得太好。

註:再提提大家,由於筆者要籌備11月的遠行,這兩個月(10月及11月)未必有太多時間經常更新及上載文章,所以決定暫時小休。10月及11月份,不會收取任何的Patreon費用。而在新安排下,大家唔使作任何改動,亦可隨時入來Patreon重溫內容。

(14/10/2020)

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