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港股唔買科技股 仲可以買乜?

受到中國監管風暴打擊,在香港上市的科技股好似俾人左一巴、右一巴摑過來,壞消息一浪接一浪,股價自然插水式下跌, “專家們”建議暫時避開科技股。這樣問題便來了,如果不投資科技股,港股還有什麼股份值得吸納呢?

藍籌新貴吸引嗎?

或者先由近日恒生指數公司公布季度檢討結果做個開場白。

根據恒指季度檢討的最新結果,信義玻璃(00868)、李寧(02331)及招行(03968)成功染藍,交行(03328)則被剔走,成份股會由58隻增加至60隻,9月6日生效。

一如筆者預期, 以今時今日的氣候,上榜的暫時避免在監管風眼的科技股,招行的加入主要是取代交行,而工業股信義玻璃和運動服裝股李寧入圍。

李寧是內地知名品牌但走不出國際,股價近幾年十級跳,但筆者每次投資運動服飾股都冇好結果😫,主要因為信心不足,從没打算長線投資,這類股份炒一輪會休息一會再上路,似乎唔啱我風格。


圖:李寧近5年股價走勢(跟恒生指數比較)

信義玻璃這類的工業股之前都投資過,一樣沒好結局。工業股對經濟敏感度高,小啲信心和耐性,也難取得好回報。


圖:信義玻璃近5年股價走勢(跟恒生指數比較)

內地的銀行股我最後持有的是建行(0939),早幾年賣出就沒有再投資。中國經濟增長速度大不如前,輪到內銀升往往都是水尾,短炒尚可,長線暫未見是好策略,我持有建行多年體驗到😫,上市頭幾年升得唔錯,自從中國經濟增長放慢,建行就打橫行。

今次恒生季度檢討,加入的是細細隻的股份。藍籌股太細隻易入易出(剔出恒生指數成份股),只要幾年業務做得麻麻,股份少人問津,成交減少就乎合唔到藍籌股的資格,好快講拜拜。今次這幾隻新貴對市場來說又不是萬眾期待, 對基金大戶來說,炒起這些股份對推動恒生指數的幫助不大,很難靠佢在期指市場食糊。

唔買科技股 仲可以買乜

話說回來,港股在累跌唔少後,星期一從低位略為反彈,唔少人都趁機會沽貨離場,特別是科技股,因為中國收緊監管的消息不斷,市場重新評估內地科技股的估值,一來外國投資者唔敢再掂科技股,二來就是在監管收緊,科網公司賺錢能力大打折扣,這樣原來已經不便宜的估值就要下調,所以未來有一段日子較難復元。

如果要留在港股,未來投資又有乜好㨂?呢個問題都考起我🤔。我對港股越來越意興闌珊。投資中資股宜短不宜長,好多股票跌咗唔少,但市場氣氛弱,監管風暴都唔知幾時過,賺錢機會好有挑戰性,但投資點解要捨易取難呢?轉場美股吧。

(24/8/2021)

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