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煤氣:讓股民失望的公用股

香港股市投資越來越難捉摸,具潛力的中資增長型股份,易受中央政策影響,前景唔易掌握, 就連過往表現平穩的本地收息股,例如公用股,走勢亦都好難理解。

一向以來食息一族的至愛 “三寶”:煤氣()0003、中電(0002)和港燈(2638),股價相對穩定,與此同時派息亦都吸引,不過近幾年來這三隻寶貝表現已經大為失色。

正如早前的分析,外國資金的流出,令到原本估值比較高的穩健收息股少了一批擁躉,估值開始調低。以今時香港的形勢,調低後唔易翻身。二來,香港防疫政策比世界其他國家來得更加嚴格,各行各業都深受打擊,食肆、旅遊業、其他企業的經營環境大不如前,公用股的收入亦都會受影響,當然中電和煤氣海外收入還遇上些問題。香港食息一族要調整一下心態。

圖:煤氣、中電及港燈近5年股價表現

美股方面, 每當地緣政局緊張、通脹升溫等負面消息出現,都令到市況較為波動,公用股有平穩的收入和派息支撐,一向都成為股市的避風塘,今年也不例外。今年以來,美股(標普指數)中,逆市上升的股份,除了能源,就只有公用股,標普能源及公用分類指數分別上升了38.9%和4.6%,這是大家可以理解的正常發展。不過由於香港人投資美股,收息要收股息稅,所以筆者介紹收息股的內容不算多。

煤氣股價大跌

話說回來,香港的公用股中,又想講下煤氣。

想講呢隻收息股好耐,始終未有時間慢慢跟大家詳談。煤氣最近公布業績之後,股價即時插水,穿了$10水平,創下五年的新低,小股東怎會不洩氣呢?

多年以來煤氣派息穩定,幾乎年年的全年派息都係0.35元,派發現金之餘又送紅股。每當煤氣股價升,股東手上股份又多了,收了現金投資又升值,怎會不高興?派現金加紅股可謂煤氣吸引股東的 “殺手鐧”。

煤氣送紅股其實都是把股份拆細,股東實際持有的資產價值一樣。要維持派紅股吸引力,主要動力來自股價升值,如果股價跌,派多幾百股都冇用。

煤氣今次業績傷透股民心,表面上好似因為只派末期息23仙,但並無宣布派發紅股。其實睇深一層,是因為業績表現唔多靚。

煤氣內地收入失色

疫情下各行業生意難做,又面對嚴厲的防疫政策,舖頭執下一間又一間。家用、商業用煤氣都少咗。傳統上,煤氣的增長動力來自內地,但內地市場的表現都乏善可陳。另方面,通脹升溫,成本不斷上升,這都打擊了煤氣國內的利潤,成為股價驟跌的原因。

煤氣擁有六成多權益的港華智慧能源(1083),主力內地市場,利潤都減少咗, 貢獻都減少左。

以現價計,煤氣現金派息有3厘多,是多年少有的高水平,但主因不是派息多了,而是股價跌不少了。表面上看似有吸引力,但大家投資的時候,都要睇番公司的前景。在能源價格升勢未有停時,煤氣收入都難看好,短期或者都繼續被冷待。

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