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美股急跌是牛市完結的先兆?

正當市場氣氛旺盛,科技股好像越升越有,蘋果(AAPL)和Tesla(TSLA)拆細股份之後再急升,在市場異常興奮下,突然來一個大逆轉,出現一個科技股小股災😱。在大家點算損失的時候,或者可能又會問,這次調整會否是科技股熱潮完結的開始?

何解股市跌咁多

Tesla遭主要股東Baillie Gifford減持,觸發科技股獲利潮。反映科技股表現的納斯達克指數昨晚下跌5%,不過指數今年以來仍有34%升幅。 標普500指數跌幅為3.5%,今年仍有11%進帳,至於舊經濟指數道瓊斯工業平均指數,跌幅相對較小,跌808點,跌幅為2.8%。 這是自6月11日以來,三大指數表現最差的一天。

各類熱門股份中,Tesla跌8%,蘋果跌8%,Nvidia(NVDA)跌9%,Amazon(AMZN)跌4.6%,重磅科技股全線跌。


圖:納指最大十隻股份表現

股市急升驟跌也不是未見過

股市急升一輪之後突然暴跌,其實這也不是奇怪事,原因是當股市大幅上升,去到一個不合理的水平,越來越多人有高處不勝寒的感覺,一有風吹草動的時候,就急急腳止賺離場、鎖定利潤。

另一方面,市場氣太過旺盛,投機活動也增加,投資者透過一些槓桿式工具,或者一些衍生工具來賺快錢,遇上形勢逆轉,這些資金也會第一時間撤離,股市一時間要承接這麼大的沽盤,加速股價的滑落。

跌市提醒大家不要過份押注科技股

大市調整會否是一個長期的趨勢?科網熱會否完結,相信誰都不會有水晶球,要看看股市升市動力還在嗎,包括資金的轉向,企業的業務表現是否不似預期,經濟環境等等的因素。

現今的股市,面對複雜的環境,資金充裕,低息環境令到股市成為投資樂園,不過,很多股份,特別是科技股,都升到你唔信,一隻Tesla,八個月升四倍,其他大笨象🐘都會起舞。今次調整如何發展,其實一般人即使是專家也難以估計,最重要的就是做好風險管理。

或許大家都要唸唸,不要把大部份的身家押注在科技股,投資的時候,也要有一個相對較為平衡的組合,不少傳統股份都是優質的公司,業務表現受疫情影響受壓,或者可以看看那些值得趁低吸納作長線的部署,稍後筆者也會介紹一些科技股以外的增長型股票/ETF。

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