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美股2022大跌 我哋學到啲乜?

2022年仲有幾日就完結,睇番今年美國股市出現重大的調整,標普500指數跌近兩成,反映科技股表現嘅納斯達克指數,跌幅更超過30%,可能好多年輕的小股民未經歷咁慘痛嘅境況,喺今年嘅投資環境下,我哋體會到啲乜?

過去10年,美國股市的表現都是升多過跌,可謂大漲小回,近多年來跌得比較多的是2018年,亦只不過是6%,即使投資失利都未致好傷。不過2022年的調整,可謂唔係人咁品,好多科技公司跌到四腳朝天,縮水一半唔出奇,是近13年以來,跌得最深的一年。

圖:美股(標普指數)歷年表現 資料來源:Macrotrends

2022年大贏家:能源股

各類股份當中,只有能源股唔使蝕。當中跌得最多的是奢侈品,以及通訊類股份,跌幅三至四成。

圖:美股(標普指數)各類股份表現(截至27/2/2022)

通訊類行業表現差,其中一個原因是社交媒體及串流媒體表現不濟,好似大大隻嘅Meta(META) 即Facebook母公司,今年跌超過六成,Netflex(NFLX)亦縮水超過一半,拖累到整體行業指數的表現。

2022年做得比較好的股票(冇咁傷),主要是能源股及防守性比較高的公用股及必需品。油價急升,大大隻的油股水漲船高。

為解美股跌咁多?

美股表現咁差,原因唔使太多解釋,主要受到幾個大問題困擾:

  1. 俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭做成地緣局勢緊張,能源價格急升,刺激通脹。
  2. 通脹不受控制,打擊民生、不利經濟。
  3. 聯儲局收水兼大幅加息,不惜一切代價都要將通脹控制過來。
  4. 高息環境企業借錢做生意成本大增,影響收入,股價自然縮水。
  5. 息口升,投機成本加重,好多炒賣活動收斂, 加密貨幣連番爆煲事件,亦都令到唔少人損失慘重。

股神畢菲特有句名言,退潮之後就知道邊個冇着泳衣,今次股市退潮,留低的是什麼的人?閣下有無計下數,今年嘅投資成績又如何。

對筆者來說,今年算是沒有太大動作的一年,唔想留低的股票都賣走咗,留低嘅只好抱住個捱過低潮的心態。以前都經歷過幾次港股大跌市,有咗心理準備,今次只係冇以前咁進取,越跌越買。

今次跌市其實頗全面,大部份人都蝕錢,只是保守嘅或早已增持現金嘅就無蝕咁多。

大跌市話俾大家知:

  1. 股市唔會長升長有,即使買咗穩健嘅股票,都會跟隨大市調整
  2. 股市可以跌到你唔信,睇下一啲加加密貨幣,跌咗八、九成,即使增長型股 份一樣勁跌。
  3. 通脹破壞力可以好大,好多人未經歷過高通脹年代,一時間未必懂得應對及做好防範準備,或者是走避不及。
  4. 分散投資嘅重要性,增長股過往升好多,好多人為爭取高回報,主力幾隻科技股,或者加密貨幣相關投資,結果身家唔見咗七、八成。

以上的體驗都係老生常談,只是大家未親身經歷過,有咗今次的經驗上咗一堂,往後大家投資相信更懂得如何應對?

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