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點解我又再睇好Netflix?

如果作為一個用戶,我絕對是Netflix的擁躉,作為一個投資者,我亦都對這一隻股票興趣增加。

先從一個用戶的個人感受來說,自從Netflix打入香港市場,筆者就一直用到現在,其實期間都用過其他不同的串流電視服務,包括Apple TV(免費送的),亞馬遜的prime,還有HBO,無論在軟件操作、節目的內容(以及字幕方面),其他的服務商是沒有得比較的。(有機會用電視迷的角色分享😄)所以我對Netflix拓展全球市場,特別是亞洲,會感到樂觀。


圖:Google 2020年熱門搜索的節目(全球)
Neflix受歡迎節目你睇咗幾多🤔(Money Heist 及The Queen’s Gambit是我的喜歡的劇集😄)。
資料來源:Netflix季報

講番業績,公司剛剛公布了第四季度的業績,令人眼前一亮的,就是用戶人數的增長,市場原先擔心Netflix的增長會放慢。更加令人眼前一亮的,就是財務方面的表現。

一向以來,市場都擔心Netflix花大量的錢來到催谷內容及做推廣,使錢方面就好像洗腳唔抹腳一樣大花筒,令到債務不斷的上升。

不過,今次的季度業績交到成績。公司在第4季的用戶人數增加了850萬戶,高過一眾分析員估計都不在話下,仲好過原先管理層預期的600萬戶。令到2020年付費用戶增加3700萬戶,按年升31%,創了2018年增加2900萬用戶的紀錄。

面對競爭對手例如迪士尼(DIS)來勢洶洶的挑戰, Netflix仍然交出亮麗的成績表,無疑為投資者注入了強心針。

另方面,由於開支的增長亦冇預期那麼大,令到公司的經營利潤,在2020由13% 升至18%,升了5個百分點, 好過管理層目標每年3%的升幅。這亦都增強了公司的現金流。

詳細的業績內容,可按此慢慢研究

管理層相信他們在2021年可以達到現金流方面的收支平衡(break-even cash flow),即唔似以前咁下下都靠借錢嚟增加內容供應。現金流的改善,用戶的強勁增長,無疑為公司盈利增長帶來很大的動力。

公司更加暗示, 未來有機會回饋股東,進行股份回購,這個操作一向以來都是推動股價的必殺技。

圖:Neflix十年股價走勢(比較標普500指數)

簡單做一個總結,公司公布的季度業績,確實令不少的分析員眼前一亮,第一,用戶人數並沒有受到競爭對手的威脅而停滯不前,公司仍然是串流服務的龍頭企業,第二就是財務方面明顯改善,特別是現金流方面,如果業績表現唔係曇花一現,未來持續都咁靚靚,前景真的可看高一線。公司股價有機會調整的話,我都會唸下作長線的部署🤔。

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