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2022上半年投資宜守不宜攻

近期感覺上比較難介紹股份,有些股票跌得多就有 “專家”出嚟話平,問題就係以現時的市場情況,股市有可能低處未算低,要平的可以更加平。 對於筆者來說,上半年即未來幾個月,投資環境都是宜守不宜攻, 未睇清楚市場形勢前,無謂太勇猛。

香港股市及美股在進入2022年第二季,繼續大幅波動,美國聯儲局的議息會議紀錄告訴大家,聯儲局會不惜一切來遏通脹,出動兩度板斧,第一就是加快加息的步伐,第二就是收水。

加息的影響早前的文章介紹不少,或者會再介紹多一些關於聯儲局收水的影響。

美國通脹越升越高,去到7%以上水平,日常用品加價,能源又加,仲有租金都升,一般來說,打工仔的人工加得最慢,哪有咁幸福可以加薪7%?一年投資有7%回報算好叻。收入無增加,只有靠食老本或節衣縮食來應付,這樣通脹升溫對各行業、各階層有很大的影響。

收入跑贏通脹不容易

面對40年來最熾熱的通脹,美聯儲除了加息,就要縮減市場的閒資,減少市場需求來遏通脹。縮表(縮減資產負債表)方法包括聯儲局唔再買入債券,即唔再借錢出去。另方面,到期的債券(包括有抵押按揭證券),任由到期並回收資金,唔再投資。這樣市場的流動資金少了,企業、基金等等借錢冇咁易,市場活動慢慢冷靜落嚟,希望可以為通脹降溫。

所以聯儲局議息會議紀錄星期三公開後,進一步確定美國息口和收水步伐會越來越認真,股市又要消化這些不利消息,進一步加劇股市的波動。

下半年投資環境或比上半年好

上半年還有幾個月,可以見到市場的形勢其實都不太好,俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭令到地緣政局緊張, 歐洲多國對俄羅斯實施的經濟制裁,亦都令到天然氣和石油價格急升,通脹想落都難。 加上美國加快了加息和收水的步伐,市場投機的資金減少了,亦都令到從股票賺錢越嚟越艱難。

事實上最近半年,不少的增長型股票都跌到四腳朝天,中小型股份亦冇運行。不少 “專業”推介話好多股份跌到吸引水平,不過市況波動,前景未明,低處可能未算低,市場還需要時間去消化壞消息,股票的合理估值要再調整,如果聯儲局的動作凑效,可以為通脹降溫,這應是下半年,甚至第三、四季的事。所以當前筆者寧願保留實力,放鬆心情去做其他的事吧。

(8/4/2022)

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