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2022年呢批旅遊股有運行?🤔

香港的防疫措施越來越嚴,悶咗至少兩年沒有出外旅行的你,見到一啲日本、歐洲等風景相,會否有望梅止渴的感覺呢🤤?有冇唸過依家努力投資,籌備一啲旅費,等政府放寬出入境政策後,來個報復性的旅行計劃💪🏻。

筆者的美股組合有不少增長型股票,在加息的陰霾下,去年底以來股價跌到四腳朝天,唯獨是有幾隻表現頗為穩健,包括當中的一隻旅遊股,今次就順勢跟大家討論一下熱門旅遊股,睇睇佢地近期的表現。

筆者持有的旅遊股就是Booking Holding(BKNG),今年以來不少科技股低處未算低,股價的波動頗大,唯獨是組合內的Booking.com,人家跌佢的表現卻穩如泰山,而市場普遍預期2022年這類股份或會有不錯表現。

歐美防疫政策變 有利旅遊股

肺炎疫情自2020年初肆虐以來,已經過了兩年,初期歐美各地政府急忙採取不同的措施控制疫情,由嚴陣以待、強力管控,去到近期開始 “睇開咗”,逐漸接受與病毒共存。

雖然歐美各地的感染人數仍處於高水平,不過隨着打咗疫苗的人越來越多,死亡的風險有所緩和,醫療體系受到的衝擊亦有所紓緩,人民囚困在家或國內多時😫,開始都 不耐煩,民意的轉向亦令到各地政府逐漸接受與病毒共存的政策。

近期無論是歐洲或美國,放寬了防疫限制, 酒吧、旅遊、食肆等行業有望逐漸走向正常。另方面多國政府亦開始放寬一些入境和旅遊限制,這令到閉關沒有得出去旅行的人,開始期待可以再去旅行,未來會否出現一個報復性的反彈,會是未知之數,不過這無疑為旅遊相關的股份,帶來正面的影響。

除了上述提到筆者持有的Booking Holding有不錯表現,相關類型股份如Expedia(EXPE),做得更加好😅。雙雙今年以來都能夠逆市上升,

講到旅遊相關股份,其實範圍頗大,包括航空、酒店、與提供旅遊服務的公司,近期的表現,尤以提供旅遊服務的企業如Booking Holding和Expedia, 表現尤為得出,這類屬於輕資產類別。

而航空、酒店則涉及不少的固定資產投資,如買飛機、起酒店等等,需要大量的資金經營。未來一旦加息,仲越加越多的話,這類公司借貸成無可避免會上升,對業務有影響,加上通脹升溫,人工、 燈油火蠟的開支亦都上升,令到成本增加,不利收入。不過, 早兩年受到疫情的打擊沉重,股價低踐,形成有一定的吸引力。所以旅遊股升,這批股份亦有反彈的潛力。而酒店股當中,市場多咗人留意Airbnb,不過呢隻股份一直都被人嫌貴,可以跌多啲話,吸引力會大啲。

圖: 美國上市酒店、渡假、郵輪公司股價表現 (4/2/2022)

值得一提,歐美各地的疫情仍然反覆,未來會否再有新變種病毒出現,打亂了旅遊業的復甦步伐,以及各地的防疫政策的轉變亦都是未知數,大家投資的時候,都要仔細研究和考慮。往後有機會再會進一步跟進。

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