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[ETF攻略]如何在強美元下賺錢

英鎊跌、日圓跌,人民幣亦不能幸免,原因無他,美元越走越強囉。面對美元的強勢,我哋又如何可以掌握這個大趨勢,從股票市場賺錢呢?

美國持續加息 美元持續強勢

美國加息好似加加極都未完,令到美元兌各類貨幣不斷上升,無論是英鎊、日圓或者人民幣兌美元都不斷創新低,面對這個環境,去旅行的當然拍爛手掌,因為港元與美元掛鉤,啲錢越來越好用,不過,在防疫政策之下,相信冇人有咁多假期可以周圍玩。有時間,不妨唸下如何掌握這個趨勢,儲定啲旅行錢吧。

強美元下投資這個話題其實好大,今次先集中在ETF方面,以下是三類最大路捕捉強美元的機遇。

1)美股中小企受惠或較多

我們投資股票,主要選擇一些能夠賺錢的公司身上,如果公司的主要收入是來自海外,外國貨幣貶值,公司收到的錢亦會縮水,所以這類公司在強美元下就是輸家。相反,如果一間公司收入來自美國本土,而輸入的原材料主要從外國入口,這樣便可以受惠於強美元。

另方面,如果公司負債累累,又是借入美元,這樣盈利又打折扣,選股時要避開這類公司。

投資美股ETF方面,美國的大企業,好多都是國際公司,有頗為大比重的收入是來自海外,所以強美元,也可能影響他們的收入。

相反一些中小型的美國公司,收入主要來自本土,即是美國國內,他們的原料可能是入口的,所以也較為容易受惠於美元轉強。

所以追縱中小企的羅素2000( iShares Russell 2000, IWM),或者有機會比追縱大企業的標普500指數的SPY吸引,不過值得一帶,滙價只是考慮企業盈利其中一個因素。

圖:IWM及SPY今年以來股票表現

2)海外股市變得吸引,但要做對沖
當美元轉強的時候,入口貨品變得越來越平,海外購物時,錢也會更加見洗。同樣地投資股票市場,可以趁海外物業或資產因滙價變動而貶值,低位吸平貨作長線投資,不過,強美元不知持續多久,又或會否越走越強,所以投資ETF的時候,就要考慮做埋對沖,否則賺了股價蝕了滙價, 到頭來都是蝕本收場。

其實美股有不少的ETF,都有對沖的選擇,例如追縱歐洲股市的ETFWisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)及追縱日股的DXJ WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF。

圖:HEDJ及DXJ今年以來股票表現

3) 直接買追縱美元的外滙ETF
睇好美元又想趁勢,最直接的方法就是透過ETF投資美元,咁樣比較簡單,唔使下下走去銀行兌換貨幣。

以Invesco DB USD Bullish ETF(Invesco PowerShares 美元指數看漲基金)(UUP)為例,呢隻ETF跟蹤美元兌一藍子貨幣(包括歐元、日圖、英鎊、加元、瑞典克朗和瑞士法郎)的價值。 基金成立於2007年2月20日,開支比率為0.75%。

圖:UUP三年股價表現

事實上,在美元轉強之下,投資機會不少,不過要做好功課,特別是現在的投資環境比較複雜,經濟及世界政局的不明朗因素太多,加上外滙一向受財政政策影響頗大,波動也比較大,捕捉未必容易。所以投資時要考慮自己的目標,是長或是短,做好應變措施及風險管理。

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