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Shopify可以走出谷底嗎?

美股昨天大幅波動,但一隻去年跌得好痛的電子商貿公司Shopify(SHOP)則逆流而上,一天內大幅反彈一成,原因是公司宣布加價。

Shopify主要業務是為企業提供一個買賣平台,你可以隨時去訂購它的服務,開一間網店,由起網站到落單、收錢,可以透過它的服務輕鬆搞晒。由於Shopify已經佔有龐大市場,暫時仍難找到強勁的競爭對手,加價可以帶來額外收入,所以對市場來說是利好的消息。

筆者早前列出20隻去年跌得多而大家認識的股份,當中9成至今反彈幅度多過標普指數,特別係Coinbase(COIN)及Shopify(SHOP),無它因為這兩隻去年跌得最傷,在低基數下反彈幅度再大,有排才返家鄉,不幸地我兩隻都持有😂。

Shopify VS Amazon

上次講咗Coinbase, 今次討論一下Shopify,好多人時常把Shopify 跟Amazon做比較。 兩者都經營網上平台,Amazon好似一個大型百貨公司,裡面有唔同商號。Shopfiy則似一個商場,為唔同嘅企業提供基本的設施,幫公司開設及經營網店。

兩間公司都是在電子商貿上打破傳統,對銷售行業有顛覆性的影響。過去多年大家都高速咁發展,加上早兩年受到疫情影響,好多人都冇得出街購物,網上銷售大行其實,股價亦好似坐火箭咁升上太空。直至去年情況逆轉了,股價齊齊插水,Amazon股價跌近一半,而Shopify則跌咗七成。

當然論規模,Shopify有排先追得上,但好多人就睇好細細地,似係Amazon二號,發展仍然有好大空間。

圖: Shopify與Amzon比較

通脹升溫,加上息口不斷上升,人工又追唔上,唔少人都要節衣縮食,非必需的消費品大受打擊,網上銷售都縮咗水。連Amazon都要全球大裁員。所以大家對Shopify前景都唔睇得太好。

筆者一真持有Shopify,對佢嘅業務前景仍未死心,它在全球有擁有二百多萬嘅企業客戶,市場上好難找到強勁的競爭對手。當全球經濟從谷底回升,業務亦可望重回軌道,不過無人說得準歐美經濟幾時復甦,不少分析員估最快都要今年尾或明又才會有好轉。

值得一提的是Amzon最近在美國推出一個新計劃 “Buy with Prime”, 容許商戶利用Amazon的支付系統以及送貨服務。市場關注會否搶走 Shopify的業務,呢個就要拭目以待。

(26/1/2023)

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